Trade’s Tech Revolution

Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

Currently, goods are often produced where energy is cheapest. As renewable energy technologies improve and society increasingly moves to non-fossil fuels, this is likely to change. Production will be possible anywhere, and is increasingly likely to happen closer to the end consumer.

Today many of the goods we consume are mass-produced in huge factories and then shipped around the world. But the development of devices such as the 3D printer means that, in the future, goods could be “mass-customised”. One-off designs could be sent digitally to small, local factories that would make customised products for delivery straight to consumers. As we enter this next phase, business leaders will need to consider where items will be produced, what new markets will open up as result of falling transport costs, and how new trade agreements will help their businesses.

These changes are foreseen in our recent report, ‘Trade Winds: shaping the future of international trade’. It’s not just the shape of trade we expect to change – we think the volume will increase significantly too. By 2050 we forecast the value of merchandise exports globally could hit USD68.5 trillion – nearly four times the value of exports in 2015 and 150 times that traded in 1950.

Just as trade has enabled massive social transformation in the past 30 years, we think it can continue to lift people out of poverty, help economies grow and promote investment in sanitation, education and healthcare. The conclusion of new regional – and, perhaps, global – trade agreements could power the rise of new trade corridors, including south-south trade between fast-growing nations in the southern hemisphere.

Finally, our report raises questions for companies. As trade patterns and consumer behaviour change, some businesses will have to adjust the way they work or be left behind by competitors. Others will see opportunities to reach new markets, specialise in new areas or revolutionise the way they design, make and market their products. Those who plan ahead and react will ultimately flourish.

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