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For many digital customers, the choice over recent years has been: tablet or phone? Bigger screens offer a better user experience, but a small device can be slipped into a pocket or bag.
Later this year the foldable smartphone should make the decision unnecessary. The screen will fold, almost halving the size of the entire device.
The tech world has been fascinated by the promise of flexible-screen technology. But while the market thought it would take until 2017 before a product was launched with a foldable display, we now think it will happen in the second half of this year.
The first generation of foldable smartphones will probably comprise a one-fold model in two size options: a four-inch screen that unfolds into a 5.5-inch screen for users who prefer small phones; and a 5.2-inch model that extends to seven inches, which will target the fast-growing “phablet” market.
We then expect a second generation of foldable smartphones to have a two-fold format, with a 5.5-inch screen that opens up to become a 10-inch tablet – possibly as early as 2017.
Not only will foldable screens allow a combined smartphone and tablet, another key aspect to this is the screen technology itself.
A big trend in the display industry has been the transition from liquid crystal display (LCD) to organic light-emitting diode (OLED). This should now be accelerated in small and large displays, and will be an important catalyst in the high-end smartphone and TV markets over the next three years.
Technology bottlenecks have held back the commercialisation of flexible OLED displays until now. Repeated folding and unfolding required advances in the durability of the materials and a protective coating had to be found that was hard but sufficiently flexible. There were also technological challenges in incorporating touch functionality in foldable displays. The solution needed to be viable for mass production too.
The transition to OLED has been slower than many expected over the past four years, despite OLED’s advanced features. This was because of OLED’s high initial capital costs, the lower than expected benefits compared with costs, and advances in LCD technology.
However, it looks as if there will soon be cost parity between OLED and LCD for small panels, with large panels following not long after. Competition should accelerate the decline in costs, bringing cost parity in 2017-18. So, there will soon be no need to choose between smartphone and tablet. You can have both in one device.
