-
- News
- Books
Featured Books
- pcb007 Magazine
Latest Issues
Current IssueWet Process Control
In this issue, we examine wet processes and how to obtain a better degree of control that allows usable data to guide our decisions and produce consistently higher-quality products.
Don’t Just Survive, Thrive
If we are to be relevant and prosper during these next critical decades in electronics, we must do more than survive. As an industry, we can and must thrive. In this issue, our contributors explore these concepts meant to help you take your business to the next level.
Material Matters
Materials management is nuanced, multifaceted, and requires a holistic systems approach for business success. When building high mix, low volume, and high technology, managing materials and overall cost containment are even greater challenges.
- Articles
- Columns
Search Console
- Links
- Events
||| MENU - pcb007 Magazine
Walt Custer’s Market Report
June 12, 2017 | Barry Matties, I-Connect007Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
![](https://iconnect007.com/application/files/5816/3123/0245/Walt_Custer.jpg)
At the recent EIPC Conference, Walt Custer delivered his annual report detailing the trends he’s been seeing in the electronics industry for 2016 and into the first quarter of 2017. Barry Matties sat down with Walt to discuss his findings, including his forecast for the upcoming year. Also discussed are Walt’s prognosis for the market segments with the most promise and those that cause him concern.
Barry Matties: Walt, you’ve just wrapped up your report. Please give our readers an overview.
Walt Custer: The year 2016 finished up quite well, and the first quarter of 2017 was strong worldwide. Almost all the sectors were up and almost all the geographies were up. The leading indicators were positive. Europe did especially well. Worldwide, I think electronic equipment sales were up about 2.8%. Now, it doesn’t sound like a lot, but it’s been four successive quarters of growth when we had contraction for a while, and Europe was up about 5% the first quarter and all its sectors grew.
Now, we are seeing some signs of slowing, or at least slower growth, but not contraction worldwide. Looking at the leading indicators out of Asia China contracted again. It dropped down below 50 for PMI. Korea has been contracting, Taiwan is still up, and Japan still up, so I think we’ve had some good times, but the rate of growth has peaked in parts of Asia.
Matties: Is that what you expected in China?
Custer: Well, I think they’re having their problems, you know, financial problems and the like so, no, I wasn’t expecting it. I don’t think the people who released the data were expecting it, but the data is what the data is and we’ll watch it. All I’m saying is I’m a little cautionary that we have had some decent growth, which felt really good, but now we’re also seeing slowing.
By end-market, semiconductor fab equipment is doing incredibly well, but that’s true of capital equipment in general during the upturns in a business cycle. In good times capital spending grows like gangbusters and in bad times it contracts. The automotive industry is up, medical electronics is up, and the instrument control sector is doing better. Even cellphone sales picked up, so there were a lot of sectors that had a good first-quarter growth.
My biggest concern is the global economy, which is fragile because of political situations. North Korea could quickly get out of hand and the Middle East is always a worry, so things could turn very quickly if some crazy person decides to push a button.
Matties: There are a lot of crazy people in the world right now.
Custer: Yeah, there are a lot of crazy people in the world. But I would say it was a very encouraging first quarter. Semiconductor sales are through the roof, but I think that will be unsustained because they are substantially outgrowing electronic equipment.
In 1Q17 electronic equipment sales grew 2.8% while semiconductors grew 18%. Sure, there’s increased semiconductor content, but not enough to make up for that first quarter growth difference. That implies that people are over-ordering and/or building chip inventories. Once people realize they have enough stock, then they will all of a sudden turn off the spigot.
In the first quarter, semiconductor capital equipment was up over 40% and that’s a bubble—mirroring semiconductors being up by 18%.
Matties: PCBs were down for a bit, weren’t they?
Custer: Well, PCBs are just not growing as fast as the other sectors. I think in the first quarter I calculated PCBs were up about 1.2% or 1.5%, but that’s compared to semiconductors, which are up 18%. People aren’t stockpiling PCBs, and the good news is that PCBs won’t crash dramatically in a slowdown, but then the bad news is that PCBs are just not growing as much as the other electronic sectors. Whether some of the slower growth is price-related or demand-related, I don't know, but PCB sales are not growing that much. We recently saw a growth in laminate, but I think some of that was panic-buying because of worries with copper foil and glass shortages.
Page 1 of 2
Suggested Items
Atotech to Participate at KPCA Show 2024
09/03/2024 | AtotechMKS’ Atotech will participate in this year’s KPCA Show 2024 in Incheon, held at Songdo Convensia from September 4-6, 2024.
Victory Announces Breakthrough in PCB Technology with New Product Launch
08/29/2024 | openPRShenzhen Victory Electronics Technology Co., Ltd., a leader in the printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturing industry, is proud to announce the successful development of a groundbreaking new product.
Connect the Dots: Designing for Reality—Electroless Copper
08/28/2024 | Matt Stevenson -- Column: Connect the DotsRoll up your sleeves because it's time to get messy. In a recent episode of I-Connect007’s On the Line with… podcast, we discussed electroless copper deposition. This process deposits a copper layer into the through-holes and vias of what will eventually be a PCB. Electroless copper deposition feels like a black box to many people. It sort of looks like a black box, too. The boards go in one side, come out the other, and emerge differently. So, let's crack open that black box and look inside.
Maximizing ROI Through Better Wet Process Control
08/20/2024 | I-Connect007 Editorial Team“When things get out of control, the variation in your wet process begins,” says Mike Carano,. “Just because they look like good boards and may even pass electrical test, it does not necessarily mean you have good boards. Once the chemistry is headed toward the right or left side of the process control parameter cliff, the plating is compromised. If the copper is thinner than it should be, when the customer puts it into service, the board may fail after 500 cycles vs. the requisite 1,000 or 2,000 cycles. The root cause issue is that you plated 7/10ths of a mil of copper instead of one-mil of copper because you were not controlling your process. The fact that you passed your own electric test becomes inconsequential.”
The Chemical Connection: Controlling an Alkaline Etch Bath With Low Copper Loading
08/07/2024 | Don Ball -- Column: The Chemical ConnectionThis month, I wanted to continue my discussion on how much process control is actually needed for high-density circuit production. However, in the last month, I have been called on to help with a specific process control problem: how to control an alkaline etch bath when you’re not etching much copper. This problem has been cropping up more frequently as smaller shops (and a few larger ones) concentrate on low-volume, high-value plated through-hole panels such as prototypes, resistor cores, etc.