The PC Market Enters Volatile 2025 on Strong Results

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PC shipments during the first quarter of 2025 grew 4.9% from the prior year, with global volumes reaching 63.2 million shipments, according to preliminary results from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. Looking ahead to 2025, the PC industry has several tailwinds and headwinds, which make for a challenging outlook and difficult demand planning.

“The market is clearly showing some level of pull-in in the first quarter this year as both vendors and end-users brace for the impact of US tariffs. In a first quarter still relatively untouched by tariffs, the entire ecosystem attempted to accelerate the pace of deliveries to avoid the first round of US tariffs and expected volatility for the remainder of the year,” said Jean Philippe Bouchard, research vice-president with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. "Evidently, commercial demand remained strong in the first quarter, but the new round of US tariffs announced on April 2nd could have a direct inflationary impact on the PC market that could result in delayed IT spending for the remainder of the year”.

Most of the underlying demand factors for PCs, such as the installed base upgrade ahead of Windows 10 end of support, and demand for on-device AI, remain strong, as illustrated by the volumes shipped in Q1 2025. However, the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and associated inflationary pressure and global recessionary risks will negatively impact demand for PCs in the following quarters in 2025.

“While many are still unpacking the details from the April 2nd tariff announcement, it’s safe to say most are reevaluating what the following months will look like,” said Ryan Reith, group vice president with IDC's Worldwide Device Trackers. “So far, our supply chain checks haven’t shown any drastic shifts, but this isn’t surprising as it’s almost too volatile to make drastic business decisions. Companies are undoubtedly evaluating everything from inventory on hand, capacity to manufacture by location, possible reroute opportunities to lower import tariffs, and for some, their deal discussions with the US administration. When it comes to hardware like PCs and similar devices, we still maintain the view that most (if not all) price increases will get passed directly to the consumer.”