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2000 Industry Vision Forecast
December 31, 1969 |Estimated reading time: 21 minutes
As we prepare to head into 2000, the surface mount process has, in many ways, come full circle. On one hand, it is such a mature technological process that many manufacturers are now focusing almost exclusively on the big picture," i.e., process control, outsourcing vs. in-house manufacturing, design for manufacture/test, etc. But with the probability of electronics manufacturing moving to an exclusively lead-free process in the near future, others are reevaluating the impact this will have on their core competencies," i.e., component placement, soldering, reflow, etc. These topics, and more, are discussed in our 2000 Industry Vision Forecast.
SMT called upon a select group of industry representatives to give their predictions for the surface mount industry in the upcoming year. They were asked to foresee the major developments and issues both within their product area and for the surface mount industry as a whole, as well as comment on environmental issues facing the electronics assembly process. Featured on the following pages, the responses provide a broad range of viewpoints, a look at the innovations spawned from manufacturing challenges, and suggestions on how to handle the industry's changing environmental landscape.
As it impacts every aspect of the surface mount process, it is no surprise that lead-free solder is the 2000 Forecast's most frequently discussed topic. While there is debate as to why the industry is moving to lead-free, there is a consensus that the industry is moving forward regardless of personal feelings, and all companies must study the impact lead-free will have on their processes. Challenges such as ISO 14000 compliance, cleaning residues left by lead-free soldering, and dealing with possible cost increases are discussed.
In 2000, there will be a major reduction in the use of hand rework in favor of automated benchtop systems, together with a reduction in the price of automation. I also expect to see a significant takeup in chip scale package (CSP) application for a broad spectrum of the industry, along with an increase in the ball grid array (BGA) packages available. Toward the end of 2000, flip chip manufacturing may become available with laminated flux/underfill material applied to the chip during the manufacturing process. This availability may improve assembly rates and improve yield, making the flip chip a viable option.
Finally, other than ongoing recognition of the environmental issues facing the industry as a whole, no issues should affect SMT specifically.
Bill Scheu,A.P.E. South
The world of electronics is in transition from analog to digital. We believe the SMT industry will continue to be challenged by the demands imposed on ever-decreasing board real estate demands that will continue to increase component density beyond its present level. The contribution from conductive epoxy material manufacturers of improving material usefulness and performance will also be important.
The SMT industry is highly dependent on consumers' demand for electronic products and their changing preferences. We believe that the major challenges for the industry as a whole will stem from its ability to adapt operations, production processes and economics to meet the demands of newer products and their evolution with respect to product life cycle.
The world is waking up to the realization that we must preserve and maintain our environment. After all, it is the only one we have. Outsourcing processes designed to use undesirable chemicals are no longer acceptable. Common sense dictates that SMT manufacturing processes will become environmentally friendly" worldwide.
Jack Engel,Creative Automation Co.
An emphasis will be placed on the development of new solder cream formulas that utilize materials more compatible with board materials as well as the environment.
The challenge of the future is to meet the demands of our industry, which continues to require more complex and dense circuitry to be assembled with user-friendly materials.
The cost factor involved in the potential transition to lead-free electronic assembly should not be taken lightly. If we are quite capable of recycling numerous hazardous materials, we should be equally adept at recycling lead. We should guard against the advantage some might seek by making this issue a political football.
Larry Hoover,EFD Solder Paste Group
Larger pin-count and smaller bump-sized BGAs/CSPs/flip chips will continue to become more prevalent. The move toward inspection process automation will likely continue. But lead-free soldering is obviously the leading topic. Japan and Europe already have legislative measures in place. Japan's target is to be lead-free by 2001; Europe's is 2004.
Jim Henderson,EFTC Corp., Northwest Operations
Improvements in automated programming software will enhance control of high-mix, low-volume and mixed-technology production problems. Having engineers and technicians that thoroughly understand the applications from both the suppliers and end users of these software products will be critically essential in the years to come. I also think we will gain the ability to perform hidden solder joint quality verification inspection on BGAs, micro-BGAs and flip chip SMT devices.
Acceptance criteria for hidden BGA, flip chip, etc., solder joints, as viewed from X-ray equipment, should be expected. There will be more emphasis on communication between customers and suppliers regarding the benefits of design for manufacture (DFM).
As printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturers continue to strive to meet federal and state environmental compliance relative to alternatives to tin/lead-finished surfaces, the PCB assembly business should be prepared to address the use of tin/lead for attaching components to circuits. If we are allowed to continue using tin/lead on alternative finishes, we may have stencil redesign considerations to contend with to meet solder joint quality criteria. This assumes that the tin/lead plating on SMT pads adds to the overall solder joint quality during reflow, especially on fine-pitch applications.
Bob Ross,EFTC Corp., Northeast Operations
I see the major developments in the screen printing market for 2000 being focused in the areas of real process results, efficiency and return on investment. After a number of years where the focus was on the development of bells and whistles," the direction is changing toward developing technology that produces real customer benefit. Streamlined user interfaces and more simplified, straightforward designs are examples. I think that the major trend in the SMT industry for 2000 is going to be a real focus on process simplification. One result of the amazing growth of the contract manufacturing market is that there is a large amount of turnover of both operators and engineers. Therefore, there is an increasing need for simplicity and ease of use.
The number one environmental issue will be the increased use of lead-free solder. This will not just be a materials issue lead-free processes have far-reaching implications for equipment, as well.
Steven Hall,EKRA America
In cleaning, the major developments will be¨ New ozone depletion models for short-lived molecules or alternative methods such as sales caps to enable Significant New Alternatives Policy (SNAP) approval, thus bringing new cleaning agents into our portfolio of cleaning options; and the challenges of new post-soldering residues from alternative, lead-free alloys.
The biggest trends that I foresee are¨ Increasing cost reduction in a mature industry to survive in a global economy; increasing environmental challenges in the way components, PCBs and printed circuit assemblies (PCA) are manufactured; and achieving competitive, low-cost manufacturing at the same time R&D sharply increases to comply with accelerating environmental restrictions. What may not be obvious is the possible loss of many small manufacturing enterprises, where profits are so slim that any increase in costs will drive them into bankruptcy. We may, therefore, see more mergers or working consortia in the future to enable the industry to continue. The industry won't be fun, but it will survive.
The industry is faced with environmental issues on several fronts that boil down to manufacturing ever-more complex electronics with fewer available chemicals. Component makers are now being restricted by global warming considerations. Both the partially and completely fluorinated chemicals are under attack, which will impact our ability to plasma-etch silicon wafers and refrigerate test chambers. Having dealt successfully with the ozone issue, the alternatives in place will now be examined to see which have to be eliminated on the basis of global warming. With both the component and assembly sectors under attack, it's now the turn of the PCB, assembly and component lead-finishing industries to figure out how to deal with the concerns over lead used in plating, solders and component lead finishes.
William G. Kenyon,Global Centre for Process Change Inc.
ISO 14000 will be the industry driver on environmental issues during the next few years. A large portion of the impact of 14000 will be felt in the soldering sector. In particular, the move to lead-free processing and flux-free exhausting will cause equipment manufacturers to redesign their oven configurations and flux separation systems to comply with the requirements.
Lead-free pastes typically require higher melting temperatures and longer dwell times above liquidus than standard eutectic pastes. Additionally, the process window for the lead-free configurations is significantly tighter, so the DT across the PCB must be lower to produce good yields. The end result is a change to the layout of the heated zones to meet the profile requirements and increased levels of hot-air convection to further reduce the DT.
Many soldering companies have integrated flux collection systems, but their intent is to keep the oven tunnel clean. Keeping the environment clean requires a new paradigm in these systems. I would expect to see several new designs at the upcoming Electronics Assembly Process Exhibition and Conference (APEX) in March 2000.
Margins are cut to the bone. The only way to provide more value and reduced costs to our customers is to form strategic partnerships. These partnerships combine techniques including collaborative product development, electronic data interchange (EDI), zero-lead-time shipments and integrated supply methodology. To date, many companies have hesitated to participate in these kind of partnerships as they fear that loss of competition will reduce their leverage. The opposite is more often true. By partnering on a single-source basis, customers are more closely involved in the process issues, have more impact on product development and find that not only are their vendors' costs reduced, but their own transaction costs go down in the process.
Marc Peo,Heller Industries Inc.
As PCBs get smaller and denser, in-circuit test (ICT) access becomes difficult and the burden to functional test increases. Many companies may desire help in implementing improved levels of functional test. Turnkey solutions to meet these needs are available. This expertise providing solutions and support for many worldwide applications will be useful in meeting the customer's needs.
Increased use of contract manufacturers (CM) has led to increased utilization of production lines and continuous flow manufacturing techniques. With emphasis placed on flexibility with rapid throughput, automation providers will be challenged to provide new solutions to increase utilization but reduce overall costs for the CMs that are working on razor-thin margins.
Increased business in the telecommunications market requires high volumes of PCBs. These can be most efficiently produced using panelized manufacturing techniques. High-speed lines will require high-speed depaneling techniques; new developments in cutter design, number of cutters and transport techniques are in development to increase speeds significantly.
SMT allows for smaller and denser PCBs more often than not, this requires panelization techniques. With no component leads, the technique of breaking along scored lines leads to stress cracks in components. More routing and cutting will be used to overcome this issue, but speeds have to increase to match the production rates of newer lines.
As for lead-free soldering, many in-roads have been made and it will soon be resolved. However, there are lots of PCBs already in use by consumers worldwide that will be disposed of over the next 10 to 20 years. These PCBs must be recovered and the lead removed under controlled conditions. After that, I am sure somebody will find another issue.
Tom Isaacs,ITE America
The continued shrinking of electronic package size and lower board-to-component standoffs are driving performance characteristics and the process methods for cleaning surface mount components. Improved chemistries for penetrating tighter spaces to remove contamination will be critical. While no-clean (low-residue") fluxes had been growing in
popularity, the size reduction in electronics components will require no residue," hence a return to improved cleaning technologies.
Surface mount is already seeing a change in package types with improved input/output characteristics. There is a growing trend toward chip scale and direct chip attach (DCA) technologies that will increase board densities.
There are two environmental issues that do or could impact the industry¨ one is the continued interest in volatile organic compound (VOC)-free processing materials, and the other is the future of tin/lead solder materials. California has done an excellent job in implementing and enforcing its VOC restrictions. The South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) has basically made it a prerequisite for a cleaning solvent to be designated a Clean Air Solvent" before it can be used in an electronics cleaning application. The extent to which VOC control becomes important in other states could have a significant effect on materials used in surface mount processing.
With regard to the future of tin/lead solder, this will be a long-term issue where companies will be positioning themselves to meet a possible change in materials use. Before any conversions are made, the environmental impact of alternate materials such as tin/silver will need to be fully understood.
Tom Herrmann,Kyzen Corp.
CSP and flip chip technology are commercially available. Mass production is turning into custom-made production, raising demands for high flexibility in surface mount production, e.g., turret-head chip placement machines may be replaced with more flexible and cost-effective machines. OEMs are increasing the outsourcing of processes to bring their product to the market faster and at a lower cost.
Advanced multilayer material technology with embedded/discrete components and microvias is being developed. Growth of the infrastructure accompanying mobile phones and the plethora of wireless communication, as well as the networking sector, will be the major drivers for manufacturing technology and produce the majority of market growth. In addition, low-cost optoelectronic components may become available.
Environmentally, the surface mount industry is moving to lead-free, and ISO 14000 certification will soon be demanded.
Matts Magnell,MYDATA Automation Inc.
The use of BGA-type devices is rapidly expanding and will drive companies to purchase equipment with greater capacity at a low initial and running cost. The shrinking size of device packaging will continue, as will the size of the I/Os that are used to attach these devices to the board.
The use of lead-free solder will become more prevalent and equipment that can handle the use of either lead-based or lead-free solder will start to be developed. By the end of 2000, there should be some mainstream suppliers of this type of equipment. There will also be a wider spread of lead-free solder connections in both lead-free solders and conductive adhesives.
Eric Williams,PACE Inc.
The surface mount industry, particularly the very high-volume segment, has been driven heavily by the manufacture of cellular telecommunications equipment and the shift of this business from OEM to the CM. While we believe this trend will continue, we do see a migration to a smaller (0201) and more sophisticated (flip chip) component mix. Another area where we anticipate significant change and growth is in routers and switches that are focused on the convergence of data, video and auto communications. The boards being used in this type of equipment will be large (18" width and larger) and very sophisticated from a component mix standpoint. In the past, this type of electronic equipment was perfect for the traditional chipshooter; today, because of size, sophistication and volume, it is quickly migrating to the very high-volume market segment.
There are a number of environmental challenges impacting surface mount manufacturing, but because my company is focused on pick-and-place machines, I'll confine my response to that area. The most significant impact to the pick-and-place process, from an environmental perspective, will be in the area of bulk feeding. This component feeding technology offers a number of advantages, not the least of which is the elimination of tape-and-reel. The obvious benefit is the initial cost elimination of the labor and materials involved in the component taping process, but equally significant is the elimination of the waste disposal of this same material once used.
S.M. Buscher,Philips EMT
Mass customization, which we define as the ability to assemble customer-specific, high-mix, low-volume products in a high-volume, continuous-flow environment, is a growing business opportunity. Critical success factors include design for assembly, flexible manufacturing processes, product and process quality improvement, and cycle-time reduction.
Component packaging is still the technology driver. CSPs and DCA will be the drivers in this area. A major challenge is scaling with silicon. Substrate design and fabrication methods are struggling to keep pace with component packaging advancements. Microvia technology is a significant advancement.
Potential lead-free regulations and lead-free soldering alternatives will be the high-visibility environmental issue for 2000. This issue, once again, is being driven more by emotion than fact. The challenge for 2000 will be government and industry cooperation toward a fact-based solution.
Robert Rowland,RadiSys Corp.
Because of pending environmental legislation in Europe and Asia, the global SMT industry will begin switching to lead-free solder in 2000. Because new lead-free alloys have higher melting points than traditional lead-based solders, reflow systems will be required to produce a higher temperature on the substrate. Additionally, these new processes may increase the need for effective flux-management systems incorporated within reflow ovens.
Over the last few years, an important trend has been to reduce the floor space required by SMT assembly equipment. This trend is growing in importance and 2000 will see new vertical" systems that bring the process into the overhead space above the production line. Also, dual-track assembly systems effectively double the production that can be accomplished through a single line of equipment; innovative dual-track systems will continue to be released during 2000.
In parallel with legislation directing our industry toward lead-free soldering, additional concern is focusing on the disposal of potentially hazardous wastes from SMT assembly especially in the reflow process. Solid wastes, contaminated solutions and reflow exhaust are all under renewed scrutiny as potential pollutants, and both enhanced equipment and disposal methods must be developed to respond to public pressure. Even the disposal of scrap product and used tape-and-reel materials may soon be controlled by new recycling mandates at the national and international levels.
Matt Brown,rehm usa
Selective soldering of residual through-hole parts remains a nagging step in all manufacturing lines. The implementation of selective soldering machines is easing this issue with flexible, accurate soldering in half the floor space. The SMT line flows from reflow to through-hole component insertion, directly into the selective soldering machine.
Europe and Japan have adopted lead-free game plans and the United States will, too. Many companies are forced to act now because they supply those countries with product. Alternative solders tend to use higher process temperatures, increasing the need for nitrogen inerting. Inerting reduces oxidation that is accelerated by the high-temperature process.
Ted Kress, Seho USA
Aside from the drive for smaller, faster and more complex assemblies, the development with the strongest impact on SMT, and industry in general, has been the environmental restrictions placed on cleaning. Buzz words such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFC), VOCs, emissions, zero discharge, closed-loop and recycle have been used just as often as the terms flip chip, fine-pitch and BGA on nearly every SMT line worldwide. Unfortunately, the cleaning terms are associated with regulations and process tradeoffs that often conflict with the drive for smaller, faster and more complex assemblies.
The major new development is how the regulating agencies are trying to work with industry by pre-approving processes for particular applications rather than red-tagging" them after installation. This is a practice that will alleviate much of the frustration associated with selecting a new cleaning technology.
The SMT assembler wants to focus on production and not be hampered by the ever-changing environmental regulations associated with cleaning. It is worth the effort to reevaluate a process to find technologies that can minimize defects while increasing throughput and yield, thus pushing profitability. To be forced into a position to reevaluate a cleaning process because of a new regulation is often an exercise in futility.
Cleaning equipment and chemical manufacturers that claim to be expert and tout fast, effective and environmentally safe cleaning should, and will, be held responsible for their products. The challenge will be for manufacturers to provide a complete turnkey process and not just a machine or chemical. The process will then be tested by an independent third party and pre-approved for a particular application, allowing the SMT assembler to concentrate on production issues.
Bill Schreiber,Smart Sonic Corp.
The introduction of closed-head printing systems, referred to as cartridge printing" heads, has impacted the SMT printing business. These new print heads are closed and the solder paste is pumped out as it traverses the stencil. The systems are demonstrating themselves well, but there are some additional issues the users must pay attention to, such as tooling support, sizing of the print head and stencil foil. These systems can be fast and reliable, but they are not as forgiving as the traditional dual-squeegee print head. Aside from products, another trend is that SMT production is growing in areas that are not low-cost, offshore locations. Prime high-tech locations such as Texas and California are busy markets for SMT assemblers.
I believe there will be some consolidation. Our current capital market is rewarding large players, and smaller organizations are having a harder time justifying their existence. As a result, both user and supplier consolidation are ongoing. To some, this appears threatening. Big companies need to absorb new technology and differentiation, however, so I believe this trend is an opportunity for smaller players to position themselves properly to become part of larger business units.
Lead-free solder is an important change that many manufacturers are going to have to wrestle with in the upcoming year. I believe there are many opportunities for the electronics industry to become more environmentally friendly, with packaging, plastics and battery technology.
Mark Curtin,Transition Automation Inc.
In 2000, 0201 chips will be integrated into new product designs. The integration of packaging levels from board to component assembly will also continue. Assembly equipment will need to help manufacturers meet this challenge. Further, the demand to reach higher equipment- and line-utilization levels is not going to subside. This is especially true for environments where frequent changeovers are the norm.
The move to lead-free soldering will have an impact. In addition, bulk-packaged components will become mainstream because they reduce waste. Placement equipment will need to be capable of handling bulk-packaged components.
Jeroen Schmits,Universal Instruments Corp.
Our product area in SMT includes new knowledge bases, such as understanding how materials behave and what the impact of this behavior is on manufacturability, performance, durability and affordability. All of these impact the competitiveness of the final product. Included in this knowledge base are simulation models, design methods and tools, and experimental techniques. We believe that the most significant impact to our customers (within this product area) has been in the ability to conduct virtual qualification of surface mount assemblies and interconnects. Virtual qualification refers to the ability to ensure reliability by simulation early in the design phase (before any hardware is actually built), so that reliability can be built into the product through robust design. This is possible today because of the level of quantitative understanding the industry has gained about how products work and why they fail. Of all the current innovations, virtual qualification technology has the most significant and sweeping impact on increasing product competitiveness because of its ability to reduce product development time, testing, life-cycle cost and customer dissatisfaction.
We believe that the next quantum leap in increasing the competitiveness of SMT will come when we achieve the same level of virtual manufacturing capabilities that we have today in virtual qualification. The ability to simulate the entire manufacturing process from first principles, presents incredible opportunities for rapid optimization of process windows, effective process control, improving first-pass yields, reducing rework, lowering manufacturing costs, and building more robust and competitive products.
Electronics manufacturing communities outside the United States have made significant leaps in environmentally friendly interconnect technologies, such as lead-free solders and solder-free interconnect materials (conductive adhesives, fuzz-buttons, etc.). Our domestic manufacturers had made a very good start many years ago, but have since surrendered the leading competitive edge to foreign manufacturers. We need to focus on regaining the competitive edge.
Michael Pecht, University of Maryland
Tighter packaging will inevitably impact our ability to solder assemblies. Solder has always been the primary method of making interconnections, but we are approaching the limits of that process. I believe we will see an increasing use of other connection systems ranging from conductive adhesives to methods not yet developed.
As more of the circuitry is placed on the semiconductor chip, it will become difficult to separate the chip maker from the product assembler. Inevitably, there will be considerable crossover, especially in leading-edge technology, and the assembly houses must begin to understand and practice microchip interconnection processes.
Three percent of the world's lead is used in electronics solders. It impacts health through careless scrap disposal. Instead of developing safe methods for disposing scrap electronics, as used with automobile batteries, there is a movement to eliminate lead. This can have a major impact on cost and quality.
Ralph Woodgate, WoodCorp.