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Daniel Research Group, a market research firm specializing in forecasting technology markets announces the publication of the United States Personal Device 2017-2021 Forecast Q2 Updated Report.
Three key causal factors will influence the total personal computing and communications market over the next five years; a mild economic slow-down in 2019-2020, an acceleration of tablet and desktop replacement rates, and the contraction of the tablet market.
While we expect desktop and mobile PC shipments to be slightly down this year (-0.8%) we anticipate healthy growth in 2018 (4.3%) before the economic slow-down moderates growth in 2019-2020 (1.6%, 1.9%), followed by a return to higher growth (4.6%) in 2020 as the economy recovers. Over the same period, mobile phones shipments will continue slow growth in line with historic rates, while Tablets shipments will fall sharply losing share to mobile PCs and smartphones.
According to Stephen Daniel, President of DRG, "The average age of the personal computing device installed base has reached historic high. Newer models better meeting users expanding content delivery, capture, and creation needs will replace many of these PCs and tablets. We expect replacement rates to accelerate for the next two years, flatten during the economic slow-down, and pick-up again in 2021."
The Tablet Market in Decline
DRG's research results show an increasing preference by both consumer and enterprise users for traditional and convertible mobile PCs over detachable tablets, as well as a growing consumer preference for smartphones for content delivery.
A New Personal Device Taxonomy
In the report, DRG contends that the device taxonomy used for the past 10 years - desktop PCs, mobile PCs, tablets and mobile phones - is outdated and no longer useful. Instead, different categories, focused on location and primary purpose, more accurately reflect the natural segmentation of the United States personal device market. The report presents forecast tables and charts using both the traditional and the new purpose-location taxonomies.
DRG's technology product and service forecasting approach relies heavily on understanding the long-term trends of causal historical time-series, including the time required to replace all of the devices currently in use. This metric is the best answer to the question; "How long do users keep their device before replacing?"
About Daniel Research Group
DRG is a market research and consulting firm servicing technology clients. Its primary focus is developing custom market models and forecasts utilizing proprietary methodologies and algorithms developed over more than 30 years. The forecast in the report was developed using DRG's EquilibriumSolver (EQS) methodology and application.
