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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1% in December to 111.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2% increase in November, and a 0.3% decline in October.
“The US LEI declined slightly in December and the recent moderation in the LEI suggests that the US economic growth rate may slow down this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of economic research at The Conference Board. “While the effects of the government shutdown are not yet reflected here, the LEI suggests that the economy could decelerate towards 2% growth by the end of 2019.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2% in December to 105.1 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2% increase in November, and a 0.2% increase in October.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.5% in December to 106.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5% increase in November and a 0.6% increase in October.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component—primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
