IDC Increases its PC and Tablet Forecasts Despite Tariff Uncertainty

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After recording strong results in the first quarter of 2025, IDC is increasing its traditional PC forecast for 2025 — this comes despite the significant impact that US tariffs have had on its trading partners’ market sentiment. Global PC volume is now expected to reach 274 million in 2025, growing +4.1% over the prior year. Beyond 2025, IDC forecasts a slight contraction in 2026 due in part from volume stabilization following Windows 11 migration and to a more difficult comparison given a stronger market in 2025.

“The 90 day pause and tariffs exemption applied to personal computers, combined with a definite level of uncertainty on what will happen after the 90 day pause, is motivating PC manufacturers to seize the moment and ship larger than anticipated volumes in the US,” said Jean Philippe Bouchard, research VP with IDC's Worldwide PC Trackers. “However, expectations of worsening macroeconomic conditions around the world and in the US characterized by upward pressures on prices and degrading consumer sentiment, will impact the PC market in the second half of 2025. Nonetheless, IDC expects commercial demand for PCs to be healthy in 2025 as the Windows 11 migration continues steadily.”

“Despite budget pressures on organizations, EMEA’s traditional PC market is set to grow through Q2 2025 and beyond, driven by the end of Windows 10 support and COVID-era refresh cycles," says Malini Paul, senior research manager of Devices Research. "While enterprises and the public sector led early demand, accelerating upgrades from SMBs are poised to be the real game changers in the second half of the year.”