It's Only Common Sense: Why the Best Years of Electronics Are Still Ahead of Us
Dan’s Biz Bookshelf: ‘The Soul of a New Machine’
(Editor’s note: This is the first of three articles on the EIPC Summer Conference. The other two articles will cover the sessions for Day 1 and Day 2. Below is a recap of the opening day keynote.)
It was seasonably wet and windy in Edinburgh, Scotland, June 3-4, where delegates from 17 countries convened for the 2025 EIPC Summer Conference to enjoy a superlative program of 18 technical presentations over two days, plus an excursion to a whisky distillery.
EIPC President Alun Morgan welcomed everyone to the Delta Hotel, reminding us that in its previous iteration, it was the Royal Scot, traditionally the annual venue of the Institute of Circuit Technology Northern Symposium. To my delight, he produced a copy of the 1982 proceedings, where I gave a presentation on outgassing.
Morgan never fails to impress with his topical and relevant introductions. This year, he focused on a nearby statue commemorating Edinburgh-born physicist James Clerk Maxwell, considered by many to be the father of modern physics. Recognized for his classical theory of electromagnetic radiation, which describes electricity, magnetism, and light as different manifestations of the same phenomenon, Albert Einstein acknowledged him: “The work of James Clerk Maxwell changed the world forever.” Ranked alongside Sir Isaac Newton for the fundamental nature of his contributions, Maxwell produced the first complete set of equations governing electricity and magnetism, expressed in terms of fields, describing how electric and magnetic fields propagate and interact.
Noted for his practical demonstrations, Morgan took from his gadget-box a powerful neodymium magnet and a copper tube. Dropping the magnet through the tube, he explained that as it fell through the conductor, the magnet causes an electric current, which generates a magnetic field that opposes the magnet. The magnet passes through the tube without touching the sides— a passive display of how electricity and magnetism work together and how waves propagate— the basis of all of our communications today.
Although we are well aware that communications rely on electromagnetic waves, a rapid proliferation of communications devices surrounds us. Morgan raised the issue of how to get power to billions of devices without relying on batteries. Around 40,000 tons of portable batteries were sold in 2020 in the U.K., with only around 18,000 tons being recycled and the remainder disposed of with the rubbish. This led him to the topic of long-range wireless power and the achievements of RX Watt, a spin-out of the University of Glasgow, in developing a holistic solution for simultaneous wireless power and data transfer, eliminating the need for traditional batteries and enabling battery-free sensing and seamless recharging, covering industrial, healthcare, and consumer electronics. Morgan gave practical examples, including unlocking a battery-less smart padlock with power from his phone.
He noted that the Japanese OHISAMA Project proposed to wirelessly transmit solar energy from space to Earth, using rectifying antennas to receive electromagnetic energy from satellites and convert it into direct-current electricity.
EIPC Technical Director Tarja Rapala-Virtanen moderated the keynote session and introduced the keenly awaited Custer Consulting Electronics Business Outlook, delivered on behalf of Jon Custer by Morgan.
Figures attributed to NT Information Ltd estimate that total world PCB output for 2024 is $95,705 million, of which the West represented $5,440 million and Asia $90,265 million. China produced $57,200 million, 60% of the world total, while Europe’s share was $1,850 million, barely 2%.
Morgan commented that China alone was 10x the West, and Asia totalled 94%. “We hear a lot about everything coming back to the U.S. and back to Europe,” he said. “Believe me, it’s not going to happen. We can do some things, and there are certain areas where we can do something very important, but we cannot bring the volume back.”
He added, “Although there is a migration going on from China to other parts of Asia, the U.S. and Europe have to realize that the supply chain for all that we do starts in Asia now, and we have to be very smart to find things that we can do that add value that can’t be added in those other markets.” He mentioned specialized areas like medical electronics and defense, together with ongoing innovations in sustainable electronics.
He made some interesting observations on comparative costs of electricity; it being three times as expensive in Europe as the U.S. and four times as expensive as China, putting Europe at a significant disadvantage. He also remarked that, particularly in defense electronics, the U.S. is effectively a significant competitor to Europe. Competition is not just from China.
Referring to Custer’s graph of European PCB industry revenues and number of manufacturers for the 2000–2024 period, Morgan was optimistic that, although revenue has declined to around $1.8 billion, it has now flattened-off and could rise to the $2 billion level, especially with the prospect of Teltonika’s new PCB factory coming on-stream in Lithuania. Although the number of manufacturers continues to decrease, this was partly explained by mergers and consolidation. He believes that the European industry remains viable, and although it only represents 2% of world revenue, that 2% has high value.
The map of the world balance of trade for PCBs shows China as the only country with a trade surplus, but Morgan looked more closely at the European situation where, in 2023, exports of PCBs (bare and loaded) totaled $4.38 billion against imports of $9.66 billion, a balance of trade deficit of $5.28 billion. He reminded us that even if PCB manufacturing returns to Europe, Asia still produces most of the raw materials. There is only one supplier of copper foil in Europe, and no suppliers of glass fabric or resin. The availability of critical metals is another cause for concern, with the majority being sourced primarily in China.
On the subject of the world economy, Custer commented on trade turmoil rippling across tech, retail, and manufacturing sectors because of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff regime, and global industries are responding with caution, expansion shifts, and dire forecasts. Top PCB makers are increasingly investing in Southeast Asia to avoid tariff fallout, with Thailand a rising hub for PCB production. Thailand alone will likely produce $10 billion worth of PCBs by the end of the decade, five times the European output.
Although Europe is showing modest industrial recovery, the overall trade landscape remains volatile, and geopolitical tensions are reshaping global commerce. European SMEs are cautious about making investments in America, and tariff uncertainty and rising costs are pushing firms to reconsider or delay projects, with many redirecting their focus to markets like India and Latin America.
World economic projections for the 025–2030 forecast that China will grow by 23%, with India at 15% and the U.S. at 11%, while it’s predicted Germany, France, and the U.K. will grow by less than 2%.
Looking at the European PCB industry, Custer said it is navigating a complex landscape in 2025, marked by modest growth, strategic shifts, and ongoing challenges. Growth will be driven by demand in sectors such as automotive, telecommunications, and consumer electronics, particularly with the rise of electric vehicles, autonomous driving, and 5G technologies. With the semiconductor industry booming, there is an enormous potential growth area in packaging substrates.
Rapala-Virtanen introduced then introduced Daniel Primett, vice-president of Auromex Group and a member of the Technical Committee of the Thailand Printed Circuit Association. Heescribed the growth of the PCB manufacturing industry, Thailand’s competitive position in the PCB market, and THPCA’s objectives.
He remarked that, as of 2023, more than $2.9 billion worth of bare-board PCBs are produced in Thailand, accounting for approximately 4% of global PCB production, and that, within Southeast Asia, Thailand has attracted over 50 PCB manufacturers and more than $5 billion in capital to expand multilayer and HDI PCB manufacturing capabilities. Additionally, more than $1 billion in new capital is expected to be invested to enhance Thailand’s production capacity for PCB materials, tools, and accessories, which represent approximately 60% of the new PCB investment capital in Southeast Asia.
Key strengths of the Thai industry are a stable supply of electricity at competitive costs, experienced and talented human resources, a stronger infrastructure than other Southeast Asian countries, competitive labor costs, and a stable democratic environment. Thailand is preferred by Western end-customers and favored by Taiwanese and Chinese PCB producers. It benefits from supportive government programs and competitively low labor costs (although it has higher manufacturing costs than China), supply chain gaps, and a shortage of highly specialized human resources.
Page 1 of 2
