Berg Insight Expects Rapid Adoption of Autonomous Vehicle Technology in the Next 10 Years

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According to a new research report from the IoT analyst firm Berg Insight, 68.6 percent of all sold cars globally fulfilled requirements for SAE level 1 (L1) automated driving and higher levels in 2024. By 2030, the percentage is forecasted to reach 90.4 percent. The percentage of new cars sold fulfilling L2 automated driving systems will moreover grow from 28.1 percent in 2024 to 51.2 percent in 2030. The availability of vehicles equipped with L3 autonomous driving capabilities is set to increase significantly in the coming years. Berg Insight projects that 8.6 percent of all new cars, corresponding to 7.7 million vehicles, are expected to be sold with L3 capabilities in 2030 as additional OEMs plan to launch L3 vehicles in the coming years. Berg Insight expects that 2.6 million passenger cars will be sold with level 4 capabilities in 2030, corresponding to an attach rate of 2.9 percent.

The regulatory environment for ADAS and autonomous driving plays a major role in shaping the future for the industry. The field of ADAS and autonomous driving is heavily regulated as the safety aspect is considered important by legal stakeholders. Historically, both China and the US have generally exhibited a less stringent regulatory approach compared to Europe, especially in the early stages of development and testing. “The regulatory environment is complex and rapidly evolving, with significant differences across regions as governments work to find the right balance between innovation and safety”, said Martin Cederqvist, Senior Analyst at Berg Insight.

Sophisticated ADAS has become a major differentiator for automakers. There are two ADAS offerings that comply with Level 3 SAE requirements today. In 2023, Mercedes-Benz launched Drive Pilot that provides conditional automated driving at speeds up to 95 km/h on select roads in the US. Since August 2024, BMW also offers Level 3 autonomous driving through its BMW Personal Pilot L3 system, initially available on the new 7 Series in Germany. Other OEMs are also following BMW and Mercedes-Benz in offering sophisticated ADAS. Tesla offers Autopilot and Full Self-Driving, Ford offers BlueCruise, General Motors offers Super Cruise and Audi offers Audi pre sense. Toyota, Nissan and Hyundai offer comprehensive safety suites including adaptive cruise control, lane assist and emergency braking systems. Chinese OEMs are gradually taking the lead when it comes to introducing sophisticated ADAS. Leading Chinese OEMs include BYD Auto, Changan, Chery, Geely, GWM, Leapmotor, Li Auto, NIO and SAIC. There are several companies today that offer fully autonomous vehicle taxi services primarily in the US and China. Examples of leading robotaxi players include Waymo, Baidu (Apollo), Pony.AI, WeRide, DiDi Autonomous Driving, May Mobility, Avride, AutoX, MOIA and Zoox. Most of the robotaxi services can be found in China and the US.

There are a number of Tier 1 suppliers, semiconductor solution providers, technology companies, software companies and startups that brings technology to the market. Leading global Tier 1 suppliers such as Bosch, Continental, Denso, ZF Group, Magna International, Valeo, Forvia, Hitachi Astemo, Aptiv and Hyundai Mobis offer comprehensive product portfolios for ADAS and autonomous driving, including sensors, central computing platforms and integrated autonomous driving solutions. HERE Technologies and TomTom provide map solutions. Leading LiDAR sensor providers include Hesai Technology, Innoviz, Luminar, RoboSense and Seyond. In China, local Tier 1s and technology companies are challenging the dominance of established foreign suppliers. Examples of leading Chinese Tier 1 suppliers include Desay SV Automotive, Beijing Jingwei HiRain Technologies, DeepRoute.ai, Momenta, Zhuoyu Technology and Huawei.

Semiconductor solution providers like NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Mobileye, Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame Technologies, Ambarella, Renesas Electronics and Texas Instruments are developing System-on-Chips (SoCs) for automated driving. “Suppliers of SoCs and related technologies are at the core of the progress in ADAS and autonomous driving, as these provide the high-performance computing and AI capabilities needed for autonomous cars”, concluded Mr. Cederqvist.