Accelerated Brand Expansion Reshapes Foldable Phone Market; Apple’s 2026 Entry May Ignite Industry Breakthrough

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TrendForce’s latest forecast estimates that shipments of foldable phones will reach 19.8 million units in 2025, maintaining a market penetration rate of around 1.6%, on par with 2024. Although growth has slowed compared to previous years, advancements in technology and declining prices are gradually positioning foldables as a key innovation in the mid-to-high-end smartphone segment—and a powerful tool for brand differentiation. Leading manufacturers are accelerating their development roadmaps, expanding product portfolios and pricing tiers in preparation for a potential market boom in 2026.

Samsung currently leads the foldable segment and recently launched its next-generation flagship, the Galaxy Z Fold 7, with significant improvements in hinge design, crease visibility, and form factor. However, TrendForce notes that growing competition from other brands is eroding Samsung’s dominance, with its global market share expected to drop from 45.2% in 2024 to 35.4% in 2025.

Huawei is projected to maintain strong momentum in China and secure the second-largest global share at 34.3% in 2025. Meanwhile, Honor and Lenovo (Motorola) are emerging as fast-growing players. Their respective market shares are forecast to climb from 6% and 5.5% in 2024 to 9.1% and 7.6% in 2025, reflecting their aggressive expansion into the mid-to-high-end foldable segment.

Xiaomi is also gaining traction with its MIX Flip series targeting the compact foldable market, with its share expected to rise from 3% in 2024 to 5.1% in 2025. Combined, other brands such as OPPO and vivo are projected to account for 8.5%, underscoring a more diverse and competitive foldable ecosystem.

Despite notable improvements in technology and product offerings, TrendForce notes that global foldable sales continue to grow at a measured pace. Key barriers include lingering concerns about crease visibility, durability, and high pricing. For consumers who aren’t loyal to specific brands, the incentive to switch remains relatively low. Consequently, foldables are still largely positioned as high-end experimental devices, while most users continue to favor well-established, cost-effective bar-type flagships.

That could change in 2026. TrendForce indicates that Apple is likely to launch its first foldable phone in the second half of next year, featuring a 5.5-inch external display and a 7.8-inch internal display. If confirmed, Apple’s entry is expected to significantly raise consumer interest and acceptance of foldables, especially among high-end users.

The device is rumored to emphasize Apple’s signature focus on ecosystem integration and stability, with deep iOS optimization for foldable use cases and seamless integration between hardware and software.

Overall, foldables are evolving from mere showcases of innovation into full-fledged product categories, with structured lineups ranging from entry-level to flagship. As prices fall and materials improve, foldables are becoming increasingly accessible. TrendForce believes Apple’s 2026 debut could be the turning point that drives foldables into the mainstream and injects renewed momentum into the smartphone industry.