Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

Dan’s Biz Bookshelf: Revisiting 'The Popcorn Report'

One of the things I enjoy most about reading is occasionally rereading books that made a big impression years ago. Sometimes they hold up beautifully, sometimes they don't, and sometimes they become even more interesting because time has given us a completely different perspective. That's exactly what happened when I recently picked up The Popcorn Report by Faith Popcorn, first published in 1991.

At the time, it created quite a stir in business circles. Faith Popcorn had already established herself as one of America's best-known trend forecasters, and this book promised to help readers understand where consumers—and the marketplace—were headed. It wasn't simply another marketing book. It was a book about the future, and that's always an ambitious undertaking.

Reading it today, 35 years later, is an entirely different experience from reading it in 1991. Back then, readers naturally wondered whether her predictions would come true. Today, we already know the answers. Instead of asking, "Will this happen?" we find ourselves asking, "Did this happen?" It’s almost like opening a time capsule and comparing someone's vision of tomorrow with the world we actually live in.

Of course, hindsight is always 20/20. It's easy for us to sit here decades later and point out what someone got right and what they missed. We know about smartphones, AI, social media, streaming entertainment, online shopping, remote work, cloud computing, and dozens of other developments that would have been difficult for anyone to predict accurately in 1991. Looking backward is always easier than looking forward. That's why I think we should approach books like this with a certain amount of humility. It's one thing to critique predictions after history has unfolded. It's another thing entirely to make bold predictions before anyone knows what lies ahead.

What impressed me most as I reread the book wasn't necessarily the individual predictions. It was Faith's willingness to look beyond the headlines and search for deeper patterns in how people were changing. She focused on human behavior, believing that understanding how people live, work, shop, and think would provide better clues to the future than simply watching the latest technological developments. Looking back, it was exactly the right approach.

One of her best-known ideas was "cocooning," which suggested that people would increasingly view their homes as places of comfort, safety, entertainment, and personal fulfillment. In 1991, that idea seemed interesting but somewhat speculative. Today it feels almost obvious. Millions of people do everything from home: work, shop, stream entertainment, exercise, and even attend doctors' appointments. Entire industries have grown around making our homes more connected, comfortable, and functional. She certainly didn't predict Zoom meetings or Netflix specifically, but she recognized a powerful shift in how people wanted to live. That is exactly what good trend forecasting is supposed to do.

She was also remarkably accurate in recognizing that consumers would demand more personalization, with products and services designed around individual needs instead of mass market averages. Today, personalization has become one of the defining characteristics of successful businesses. It’s almost everywhere we turn.

Another trend she recognized early was the growing importance of wellness. In the early 1990s, wellness was still something of a niche market. Now it’s a trillion-dollar industry. People think differently about nutrition, exercise, sleep, preventive healthcare, stress management, and mental well-being. Companies build entire brands around helping consumers live healthier lives. Once again, Popcorn wasn't predicting specific products. She was identifying a cultural movement that would grow for decades.

She also anticipated increasing consumer concern about environmental responsibility. Sustainability, recycling, energy efficiency, and corporate social responsibility have become standard business conversations today, but they were far less common when The Popcorn Report appeared. She recognized that consumers would expect businesses to become responsible corporate citizens. Looking around today's marketplace, it's difficult to argue with that assessment.

Naturally, not every prediction worked out exactly as expected. Some trends developed slowly or took a different direction. Others simply faded away. But I don't view those as failures. In fact, they illustrate one of the most important realities about forecasting: Predicting the future is never about getting every detail exactly right.

She wasn’t right about how much digital technology would reshape nearly every aspect of modern life, but that doesn’t mean she failed. No one could fully appreciate how much the internet would change society. It reminds us that history often changes direction because of innovations that almost no one sees coming.

The book also offers an important lesson for today's business leaders. Too often, when companies talk about forecasting, they focus almost entirely on technology: What new software will disrupt an industry? It’s an interesting question, but not always the most important. A better question is: How are people changing? What are customers beginning to value that they didn't value five years ago? Which behaviors are quietly becoming habits? Those questions often provide much more useful guidance than trying to guess which technology will win.

AI offers a perfect example. Much of today's discussion revolves around which AI company will dominate or which platform has the most advanced features. Those questions matter, but the bigger story is that people want faster answers, greater productivity, more personalized information, and less repetitive work. Those human desires will continue to shape AI long after today's leading platforms have evolved into something entirely new.

Forecasting should never be confused with fortune-telling. Good forecasters observe society carefully, identify emerging patterns, and ask thoughtful questions about where those patterns may eventually lead. The discipline of paying close attention to change is valuable regardless of whether every prediction proves accurate.

That may be the book's greatest contribution. It teaches readers how to think rather than what to think. It encourages curiosity, and reminds us to observe carefully, question assumptions, and recognize that today's small changes often become tomorrow's major industries. Those lessons never become outdated because the world never stops changing.

Another value I gained from the book is to observe how thoughtful people approach uncertainty. Faith understood that the future is shaped not simply by technology but by evolving human needs, aspirations, and behaviors. She recognized that businesses willing to pay attention to those changes would be better prepared for whatever came next.

Looking back, it's impossible not to admire the courage it took to publish a book filled with bold forecasts. Anyone can explain yesterday. Predicting tomorrow is much harder. The fact that so many of her observations proved remarkably accurate only adds to her credibility. The fact that some missed the mark simply reminds us that the future has a way of surprising everyone.

Dan Beaulieu is president of D.B. Management Group.

Title: The Popcorn Report
Author: Faith Popcorn
Copyright: 1991
Price: $9.99 (Amazon Kindle)
Pages: 240