Memory Costs Drive Up iPhone 18 Series BOM; AI and Pricing to Shape Upgrade Demand

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TrendForce’s latest smartphone industry research indicates that Apple plans to adjust its product launch schedule starting in 2026, splitting new releases between fall and spring. This fall will see the debut of the flagship iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, along with the highly anticipated iPhone 18 Fold (tentative name), Apple’s first foldable smartphone. The standard iPhone 18 and other variants are expected to follow in the first quarter of 2027.

The highlight of this year’s launch—the iPhone 18 Fold—is expected to benefit from Apple’s strong brand appeal. However, its relatively late shipment schedule, coupled with limited initial production and inventory, means its impact on overall foldable smartphone penetration will not be immediate. TrendForce estimates that foldables will account for only around 2% of the global smartphone market in 2026.

Practical hardware upgrades focus on cooling, cameras, and battery life

TrendForce notes that while Apple’s three upcoming fall models will feature improvements to their processors, thermal architecture, and camera systems, they are generally expected to lack breakthrough upgrades. Key specification changes include:

• More powerful 2nm processor: All three models will adopt the A20 Pro processor based on TSMC’s 2nm process, providing greater computing power for on-device AI while improving power efficiency.
• Upgraded chip cooling: The memory packaging architecture will transition from InFO to WMCM, shortening signal transmission paths and helping alleviate heat buildup during intensive workloads.
• More power-efficient high-refresh-rate displays: The displays will be upgraded to LTPO+, further reducing display power consumption while maintaining smooth, high-refresh-rate performance.
• First mechanical variable aperture: The Pro models will introduce a mechanical variable aperture for the main camera that improves optical depth-of-field control and dynamic range across different lighting conditions.
• Larger batteries and longer battery life: Internal space optimization will allow all three models to accommodate larger batteries, with the Pro Max expected to see a more pronounced improvement in battery life due to its larger chassis.

It’s noted that Apple has made pragmatic hardware trade-offs with the iPhone 18 Fold to balance a slim design with everyday usability. Its first foldable smartphone is expected to feature a dual-camera setup and adopt a conventional capacitive fingerprint sensor.

iPhone 18 series prices expected to rise 10–20%

Memory prices have entered a major upcycle since the second half of 2025, placing significant pressure on the cost of Apple’s new models. For the 256 GB Pro model, memory costs in 3Q26 are expected to be nearly 400% higher than a year earlier. Despite Apple’s efforts to negotiate lower prices for other components, these savings are unlikely to offset the resulting pressure on overall BOM costs.

An increase in retail prices appears increasingly unavoidable while hardware costs remain elevated. However, given the weak global macroeconomic environment, more cautious consumer spending, and Apple’s strategy of continuing to expand its market presence, TrendForce expects the company to adopt a relatively moderate pricing approach. Prices for the new models are projected to rise by around 10–20%, with Apple absorbing some of the higher costs to help preserve market share.

For the highly anticipated iPhone 18 Fold, improvements in crease reduction will be a key technological highlight, while its position as Apple’s first foldable will also make its pricing an important benchmark for future generations. TrendForce estimates that the device will carry a starting price of US$2,099–2,299, while top-end configurations could exceed $3,000.

TrendForce notes that with hardware costs remaining high, Apple Intelligence cloud services and software subscriptions are expected to contribute more significantly to earnings moving forward. Expanding these higher-margin revenue streams will be a key part of Apple’s strategy for maintaining its overall profitability.