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Holiday Demand Tapers, November PCB Book-to-Bill Dips
December 29, 2009 |Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
BANNOCKBURN, IL — IPC — Association Connecting Electronics Industries saw a slight industry decline in the November findings from its monthly North American Printed Circuit Board (PCB) Statistical Program. Rigid PCB shipments declined 11.3% and bookings were down 4.1% in November 2009 from November 2008. Year to date, rigid PCB shipments were down 24.8% and bookings fell by 21.3%. Compared to the previous month, rigid PCB shipments declined 2.6% and rigid bookings decreased 6.8%. Rigid PCBs represent an estimated 91% of the current PCB industry in North America, according to IPC’s World PCB Production and Laminate Market Report. The book-to-bill ratio for the North American rigid PCB industry in November 2009 registered 1.07. Flexible circuit shipments in November 2009 went down 3.5% and bookings increased 31.9% compared to November 2008. Year to date, flexible circuit shipments were down 1.1% and bookings were down 2.4%. Compared to the previous month, flexible circuit shipments went down 12.9% and flex bookings fell by 3.4%. In November, the flexible circuit manufacturers in IPC’s survey sample indicated that bare circuits accounted for approximately 73% of their shipment value reported for the month. The North American flexible circuit book-to-bill ratio in November 2009 climbed to 1.02. For rigid PCBs and flexible circuits combined, industry shipments in November 2009 decreased 10.8% from November 2008, and orders booked decreased 2.2% from November 2008. Year to date, combined industry shipments were down 23.3% and bookings were down 20.1%. Compared to the previous month, combined industry shipments for November 2009 decreased 3.4% and bookings went down 6.6%. The combined (rigid and flex) industry book-to-bill ratio in November 2009 slipped slightly to 1.07, but remains strongly positive. “The negative year-on-year growth rates in PCB sales continue to improve and orders are still outpacing sales — both good signs for the future,” said IPC president Denny McGuirk. “We typically see a slowdown in November sales as the holiday-related demand tapers off. Most encouraging is that the book-to-bill ratio has been in the positive range for seven straight months, which indicates strengthening demand.” IPC’s monthly survey of the North American PCB industry tracks bookings and shipments from U.S. and Canadian facilities, which provide indicators of regional demand. These numbers do not measure U.S. and Canadian PCB production. To track regional production trends, however, IPC asks survey participants for the percent of their reported shipments that were produced domestically (i.e., in the USA or Canada). In November 2009, 79% of total PCB shipments reported were domestically produced. Domestic production accounted for 79% of rigid PCB and 87% of flexible circuit shipments in November by IPC survey participants. These numbers are significantly affected by the mix of companies in IPC’s survey sample, which may change slightly in January, but are kept constant through the calendar year.
2009 IPC Book-to-Bill Reports:October 2009 PCB Orders, Shipments Still Indicating GrowthSeptember Book-to-Bill Above Parity: 1.08IPC August PCB Book-to-Bill Ratios Steady at ParityIPC's July Book-to-bill Stays Just Above Parity 2009 PCB Orders Down 30% Year-to-Date, June Book-to-Bill PositiveMay PCB Orders Outpace ShipmentsApril PCB Book-to-Bill Shows Glimpse of RecoveryQ'02 Facing Soft Market; March PCB Book-to-Bill ReleasedRigid PCB Book-to-Bill Remains Low in February, Flex Moves UpJanuary PCB Book-to-Bill Drops to 0.89The book-to-bill ratios are calculated by dividing the value of orders booked over the past three months by the value of sales billed during the same period from companies in IPC’s survey sample. A ratio of more than 1.00 suggests that current demand is ahead of supply, which is a positive indicator for sales growth over the next two to six months. Year-on-year and year-to-date growth rates provide the most meaningful view of industry growth. Month-to-month comparisons should be made with caution as they may reflect cyclical effects. Because bookings tend to be more volatile than shipments, changes in the book-to-bill ratios from month to month may not be significant unless a trend of three consecutive months or more is apparent. It is also important to consider changes in bookings and shipments to understand what is driving changes in the book-to-bill ratio. The information in IPC’s monthly PCB industry statistics is based on data provided by a representative sample of both rigid and flexible PCB manufacturers in the U.S. and Canada. IPC publishes the PCB Book-to-Bill Ratio and the PCB Statistical Program Report each month. www.ipc.org