Smartphone Market Will See the First Single-Digit Growth Year on Record

Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

iOS: IDC has raised its 4Q15 iPhone numbers by 7.6% based on continued consumer demand for the 6(+) and S6(+) lineups, as well as smooth supply chain foresight. As mentioned in previous releases, the market share forecast for iOS is expected to remain around 14-15% annually, with clear spikes around product launches. As the majority of Apple's core markets have transitioned into replacement markets, Apple's move to get into the iPhone trade-in space is not surprising. The possible challenge in 2-3 years' time could quite possibly be excess inventory in the developing markets that refurbished iPhones are sold into. However, the lead time to solve a problem of this nature does not present any immediate concerns to IDC.

Windows Phone: Despite all the effort Microsoft has put into the launch of Windows 10, IDC does not expect Microsoft's share of the smartphone OS market to grow much over the coming years. In 2015, IDC expects the average selling price (ASP) of Windows Phones to be $148, which is $71 lower than Android's ASP of $219. This was brought about by the Microsoft/Nokia push into the low-end mass market. While this approach helped drive shipments up to 34.9 million units in 2014, IDC is forecasting a year-over-year decline of -10.2% in 2015, followed by further decline in 2016. The weak results can largely be attributed to the lack of OEM partner support.

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