The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for Spain Increased

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Spain increased 0.4 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in October.

The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in October, as the Spanish equity price index and long-term government bond yield made large positive contributions. Between April and October of this year, however, the leading economic index declined 0.1 percent (about a −0.2 percent annual rate), after growing 2.6 percent (about a 5.2 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have become more widespread than the strengths in the last six months.

The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in September. In the six-month period ending October 2015, the coincident economic index grew by 1.8 percent (about a 3.6 percent annual rate), unchanged from its growth rate over the previous six months. The strengths among the coincident components have remained very widespread. Meanwhile, real GDP advanced by about 3.2 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter, after growing by 4.0 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter.

Despite the LEI’s improvement in October, the six-month growth rate of the LEI remains slightly negative. Meanwhile, the CEI continues increasing at a modest pace, although its six-month growth rate remains the same as six months ago. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the current economic expansion may moderate somewhat early next year.

LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in October. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish equity price index, the long-term government bond yield (inverted) and the order books survey. The negative contributors —in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—are the capital equipment component of industrial production, job vacancies and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2.

With the increase of 0.4 percent in October, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 103.4 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in September and increased 0.1 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index decreased 0.1 percent, and three of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in October. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were final household consumption, employment, real imports, industrial production excluding construction, and the retail sales survey.

With the increase of 0.2 percent in October, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 97.8 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in September and increased 0.2 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 1.8 percent, and all five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).