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Spurred by major and emerging markets, global photovoltaic (PV) demand has grown substantially this year. According to the latest Gold Member Report by EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, installed capacity worldwide for 2015 is estimated at 53GW, amounting to a 20% year-on-year growth. Next year’s total installed capacity is expected to reach 59GW, up 11% in annual growth.
EnergyTrend analyst Patrick Lin said that the global market will maintain strong growth momentum up to next year’s October on account of the installation rush in the U.S. Based on EnergyTrend’s analysis, China, the U.S. and Japan are projected to contribute 61% of global demand next year. China in particular has revised the deadlines for connecting the country’s PV power plants onto the grid as to spread next year’s demand more evenly, thus avoiding installation rush at the end of year. While demand growth will be significant in 2016, manufacturers will also undertake massive capacity expansion at the same time. Hence, there is a concern that after the installation boom in 2016, demand growth will flatten in 2017 and overcapacity will hurt the industry.
Emerging markets will keep growing but there are uncertainties ahead
Lin said growth in the emerging markets has been considerable this year owing to carbon emission reduction policies. Total installed capacity of emerging markets for 2015 is estimated at almost 10GW. However, the overall installation progress in the emerging markets this year has fallen behind schedule. PV investments in these countries have been relatively low because of factors such as a lack of infrastructure, currency rate fluctuations and political risks. EnergyTrend expects that the emerging markets will keep enjoying tremendous growth in 2016, with the forecast installed capacity soaring by 50% year on year to about 15GW.
Among the emerging markets, India will still lead in installation growth next year, though it is unlikely to meet its target. India’s installed capacity next year is projected at just 5.5GW. With the exception of Chile and South Africa, both of which will reach the GW mark, other emerging markets will have installed capacities that range from 500MW to 300MW and under, respectively.
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