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An Age-Old Question
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China’s recent move to scrap the one-child policy is testament to this, but India, the Philippines and many African countries have very large young populations, meaning the global demographic outlook is much better than might otherwise be expected. However, most wealth is still in the West and the biggest potential supply of labour is in the East.
Elsewhere, there will be a dramatic shift in demographics in Poland and Russia, while South Korea moves from clearly positive growth in the working-age population over the past decade to a clearly negative rate over the next 10 years.
If the mismatch between West and East can be corrected, then global demographics are not so challenging. Although population growth is slowing, 80 per cent of countries in the world still have an increasing working-age population and global dependency ratios are not deteriorating sharply. So while demographics may hinder growth going forwards, with the right policies the drag can be limited.
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