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The general outlook for the 2016 PV market has become more certain as China, the U.S. and the U.K. finalize their respective subsidy policies. “China plans to connect the country’s PV power plants onto the grid before the middle of the year,” said Corrine Lin, analyst for EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce. “Therefore, major manufacturers of multi-Si wafers, cells and modules will be running at full capacity during the first quarter.”
A major silver powder plant owned by DOWA Hightech had an accident in early January. This event is currently the only variable that could affect the PV supply chain since DOWA Hightech is the leading supplier of silver powder for conductive paste. Cell manufacturers will have difficulty maintaining their high capacity utilization if the silver powder plant does not return to full operation soon.
In the U.S. market, the extension of the solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC) has dampened the industry’s anticipation of an installation rush in the second half of 2016. Lin expects the worldwide boom in PV demand to wind down after the Chinese New Year holidays. Presently, prices across supply chain are almost at their highest and will have difficulty to move up any further.
Decline in polysilicon prices starts to moderate; multi-Si wafers and cells are nearing their peaks
The latest reporting from EnergyTrend reveals oversupply and Chinese trade barriers have caused polysilicon prices to drop sharply this month despite the unusually warm demand. The Chinese polysilicon market remains in a slump with the average dealing price arriving around RMB 104~106/kg. However, most Chinese polysilicon manufacturers and their downstream clients have kept their inventory levels under control to approximately two weeks to a month. While the decline of polysilicon prices will persist, the trend will start to moderate.
The multi-Si wafer market are seeing prices go up rapidly this month on account of demand outstripping supply. On the whole, the capacity increases undertaken by multi-Si wafer manufacturers during 2015 were the most conservative compared with capacity increases in other segments of the PV supply chain. However, TrendForce estimates that there will still be an additional 5GW added to overall multi-Si wafer capacity in 2016. The tight supply situation is therefore expected to get some relief in the near future, and multi-Si wafer prices will peak in February.
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