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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in December to 123.7 (2010 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in both November and October.
"The U.S. LEI fell slightly in December, led by a drop in housing permits and weak new orders in manufacturing," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. "However, the index continues to suggest moderate growth in the near-term despite the economy losing some momentum at the end of 2015. While the LEI's growth rate has been on the decline, it's too early to interpret this as a substantial rise in the risk of recession."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in December to 113.0 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in November, and a 0.2 percent increase in October.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in December to 119.9 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in November, and a 0.2 percent increase in October.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
