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TrendForce’s latest investigations reveal that major Korean and U.S. memory suppliers are expected to significantly reduce or even cease production of LPDDR4X in 2025 and 2026. However, many mobile processors are not yet compatible with LPDDR5X, resulting in a supply-demand mismatch.
Smartphone brands have ramped up procurement of LPDDR4X to avoid production disruptions caused by the supply gap and this surge in demand is the main driver behind the recent increase in contract prices. As leading suppliers scale back production of older-generation products, a tightening LPDDR4X supply is inevitable. TrendForce forecasts that the upward price trend will persist at least into early 2026, easing only once LPDDR5X adoption gains momentum.
Although memory products and manufacturing processes continue to advance, many entry-level smartphone processors have stopped updating their process nodes and only support LPDDR4X. Some mid- to low-end SoCs support both LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X, but due to pricing concerns and strong capacity from Chinese memory suppliers—often backed by government subsidies—brands have historically favored LPDDR4X.
Now, as LPDDR4X availability tightens, brands are prioritizing validation of LPDDR5X for compatible models. However, for a wide range of low-end products, such as 4G processors, adoption remains constrained due to compatibility limitations. Large-scale migration to LPDDR5X will likely require broader industry shifts, such as upgrades to 5G platforms.
TrendForce notes that LPDDR4X is still expected to account for around 42% of total mobile DRAM bit output in 2025, with the rest being LPDDR5X. However, surging demand for LPDDR4X, coupled with a projected double-digit year-over-year decline in bit output by 2026, is exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance and driving prices even higher. As a result, the price gap between LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X has rapidly narrowed in 3Q25, and a reversal in pricing could emerge in upcoming quarters.
As LPDDR5X supply improves in 2026, contract prices are expected to fall below those of LPDDR4X, offering an additional incentive for brands to make the switch. Accelerated validation of LPDDR5X and industry upgrades will be key to reducing dependency on LPDDR4X.
TrendForce further points out that the recent price surge in LPDDR4X is placing significant cost pressure on mid- to low-end smartphone products, forcing some brands to exit the budget market altogether. In response to potential supply cutoffs and profitability concerns, brands are likely to adjust retail pricing and market strategies. These developments may impact the overall sales performance of smartphones.
