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Based on survey data, U.S. EMS providers are reporting a noticeable uptick in orders, and the narrative forming around what’s driving that growth is familiar: tariffs, reshoring, and a long-awaited revival of domestic manufacturing. Some analysts even claim we’ve entered a super-cycle, a prolonged period of demand-driven economic growth that can last years to decades. But as is often the case in this industry, the reality is more nuanced.
A closer look at the data suggests two competing truths. First, there is real growth, but that growth seems concentrated, uneven, and, in some cases, distorted by policy-driven timing effects. Next, what kind of growth are we actually seeing, and how durable is it?
In this article, we present both bullish and bearish perspectives, then reconcile them into an analysis as holistically as possible.
The Bull Argument
Survey data from the Reshoring Initiative1 suggests that U.S. tariff policies are significantly affecting reshoring, but supply chain risk, logistics costs (currently spiking since February 2026), and the value of physical proximity to OEM engineering teams are also influencing reshoring. The takeaway is that reshoring was already underway and, perhaps, tariff policies simply reinforced the trend. On the other hand, the CHIPS Act can be credited with 17 semiconductor fabs and multiple advanced packaging facilities announced in the U.S., reaffirming that investment policies can create manufacturing tailwinds.2
It’s very clear that AI-related infrastructure buildout is reshaping demand in multiple ways. This matters to EMS providers because it is not cyclical consumer demand, but long-duration, capital-intensive construction. Jabil,3 Flex, and Sanmina have all pointed to data center, AI, and cloud infrastructure as major market drivers.
To continue reading this article, which originally appeared in the May 2026 SMT007 Magazine, click here.
