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December 14, 2015 | HSBCEstimated reading time: 3 minutes
Globally, the HSBC Trade Forecast points to the Chinese slowdown as a key contributor to the dropoff in world trade. The forecast sees the developed markets continuing to lead on international trade growth to 2019-2020, with strong performance from the US and Eurozone (five to six percent) before the emerging markets recover, led by an upturn in China as domestic policy stimulus gains traction. Regarding the key drivers for the recovery of trade, the forecast points to five global trends that will impact positively around the world:
- The stabilization of China’s economy
- Stronger investment spending supporting solid growth of import-demand in the developed markets
- Cyclical recovery in key sectors’ Trade liberalization gaining traction
- Growth beyond merchandise goods into trade of services
US Exports to China Expected to Grow by 9% a Year to 2030
Over the longer term, the trade forecast shows global economic growth to be strongest amongst the economies of East and South Asia. Two-way trade flows between the U.S. and Asia are expected to grow in importance relative to slower growing but more established trade ties with industrialized economies. US exports to China are expected to grow by nine percent a year on average in the decade to 2030, so that by the end of this period China will have surpassed Mexico as the second largest market for US exporters.
“Increased trade with Asia, particularly China, represents a major business opportunity for US businesses,” said HSBC’s Huh. “And with the recent IMF decision to include China’s currency in its SDR basket, US companies may want to consider how to make renminbi part of their business strategy."
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