Economists Look into Evidence of U.S. Losing Jobs to China

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

To be sure, as free-trade advocates like to point out, international agreements have also improved conditions for workers in the developing world. Chinese wages have risen dramatically and the country’s share of world manufacturing value added has risen from about 4 percent in 1991 to 24 percent in 2012.

Still, concerned policymakers in the U.S. are left wondering what kinds of programs, from trade adjustment assistance to job retraining and more, can help workers in their own country. And as Autor notes, the general acceptance of trade’s value means that “trade adjustment policy has been a total orphan policy for a long time.”

So Autor’s current work on trade has two practical aspects. He is trying to spread the recent empirical findings around academia, while undertaking studies that dive into the broader social effects of trade, beyond employment outcomes.

Among his ongoing studies are one examining the effects of trade shocks on political polarization; another looking at the effects of trade on earnings and research and development investment among U.S. companies; and a third that looks at underemployment, family structure, and the disintegration of two-parent households.

“Work is really wrapped up with identity,” Autor observes. “Work is not just money for most people. They don’t fare as well when they don’t feel they have a meaningful thing to apply themselves to.”

All of this research, Autor adds, is meant to speak to interested policymakers and reinforce the idea that trade policy is not just an issue that stands apart from larger issues concerning the social fabric of America.

“If we’re now in the era where we’re going to say we now recognize that trade has very strong disruptive effects,” Autor says, “then what do we do about it? What is the right policy?”