Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

The E.I. Files: The Electronics Industry's Black Swans

Not all evolutionary events in the history of electronics manufacturing have been predictable, but their impact has often been substantial. The universe is all about change. It has been expanding and changing for 14+ billion years and persistence of change was sagely observed by the Greek philosopher Heraclitus who stated, "Nothing is permanent except change" Much change is predictable as we connect dots from the past and extrapolate them into the future. Certainly our own aging, as much as we might like to stop it, it is a form of change that as predictable as the rising and setting of the sun. In virtually every field of human endeavor and experience, there are inevitably found rare events that defy experience and prediction by simply arriving on the scene, seemingly out of nowhere. This is the theme of the book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The “black swan” reference has been traced to the Roman poet Juvenal who wrote, “A good person is as rare as a black swan” (apparently he was somewhat of a pessimist). The use of the black swan analogy made its way into 16th century London at which time the term was used to describe a occurrence or event deemed impossible. This can be attributed to the fact that the commonly-held perception at the time was that all swans where white and that black swans did not exist. However, that perception was eventually proved wrong. Which is an interesting premise related to the book. Consider the following: How many white swans are required to prove that there are no black swans? The answer is an infinite number. In contrast, how many black swans are required to prove their existence? Just one.

In the book, the author explores and examines the disproportionate effect of rare and largely unpredictable events--events that have ultimately wound up redirecting and even fundamentally reshaping science, technology, and even history itself. Taleb also discusses the various human psychological biases that blind us to the very existence of uncertainty and even conspire to make us blissfully unaware of the impact of such rare events even as they are occurring right under our noses. Yet, and interestingly, when they are finally recognized for what they are, the events are then typically viewed retrospectively as predictable with many suggesting that they knew all along that the event was bound to happen. It conforms well to the adage “Hindsight is 20/20” Thus, while such events are rare, in general, they often play a larger role in reshaping or redirecting the arc of progress than routine or normal evolutionary events.

Among the several “black swans” Taleb discusses in his book, two are likely to be familiar to the reader: The computer and the Internet. However, if one applies the concept to our industry from the perspective of electronic interconnection technology, one will find that the electronics industry has seen many of its own black swans over the course of the industry’s history. Following are possible contenders for the title of “Black Swan.”

First, let’s consider the electronic switch. Earlier calculators, from the abacus to adding machines and the Babbage computer, all relied on mechanical switching that were tediously slow (though some seasoned users of the abacus are extraordinarily quick). The electronic switch, which operated many times faster, changed the game. For this discussion, electronic switches include both vacuum tubes and discrete transistors, even though the transistor could arguably be counted as a black swan in its own right. In electronics they functioned similarly, allowing for the switching and amplification of electronic signals. The vacuum tube ushered in the electronics era (first in radio and later in electronic computing) in the early 20th century, and the transistor allowed for reductions in size and power that really opened the doors to all modern electronics. Their combined effect has been nothing short of profound on the history of the world that is as well as the one yet to come.

Next there is the printed circuit. While often considered a rather prosaic interconnection structure, the printed circuit opened the doors to mass production of electronic products by eliminating costly and error-prone point-to-point wiring methods of interconnection electronic devices, especially the newly developed transistors. The printed circuit was actually the first method of integrating transistor devices, and integrated circuit inventor Jack Kilby was an experienced printed circuit engineer before he joined Texas Instruments. In addition, the current generation of printed electronics, which have their roots in printed circuitry and now include printed transistors, might prove in retrospect to have been a member of the black swan family.

Then there is of course, the integrated circuit which is on the short list of the greatest inventions in the history of the world. The integrated circuit allowed for further reductions in the size and cost of electronics while increasing their performance and making products that were much more reliable. The integrated circuit has followed a largely evolutionary development path, but the change from MOS to CMOS technology was yet another black swan that significantly altered the course of IC development by reducing power requirements.

Through hole technology “ruled the roost” of electronics manufacturing for the first three plus decades of the industry when it was replaced by surface-mount technology. SMT was an early contender for making interconnection of packages to PCBs, but the difficulty of handling small components with delicate leads limited its early acceptance and through-hole component technology dominated for many years. However the pursuit of great component density and lower cost allowed SMT to become the black swan of the component assembly industry.

Chip-scale packaging (CSP) is another black swan of corts. Prior to CSP technology was flip chip technology an invention that actually has roots in the earliest days of electronics pressed and which defined the limits of chip level interconnection by eliminating the need for a package. However flip-chip technology had limits of its own, especially in terms of its inability to be standardized and easily tested the chip-scale package, offered the benefits of flip chip, but without the risks providing the many positive attributes of flip chip in terms of size and performance but with the benefits of the package.

Wafer level packaging (WLP) is not suitable for every type of chip, but the concept of wafer level packaging when first introduced defied conventional thinking in the 1990s. While clearly inspired by flip-chip technology, wafer level packaging provided the vitally important standard I/O terminations required for a coherent industry

When first introduced and called a multichip module (MCM) in the late 1980s and early 1990s MCMs showed promise however, the technology faltered due to expense related to infrastructure that was unready and its vulnerability to unpredictable die quality. It was reborn as system in package (SiP) along with chip and package stacking concepts which are now taking center stage. Though there are differences and perhaps some could be considered separate black swans, the common thread that weaves through these technologies is that they all seek to increase chip-packaging density without sacrificing circuit board space making possible a whole range of todays most sophisticated products.

Through silicon via (TSV) technology has roots that reach back to the earliest days of the semiconductor industry, but it has only recently made inroads to major production and it could redefine how integrated circuits and systems are defined in the future. It appears to be the natural successor to Moore’s Law, which has paced electronics product development for four decades.

First proposed in 2007, there is another potential electronics industry black swan technology quietly being developed and refined. It is one that could greatly and positively impact at once, the cost, reliability and environment friendliness of electronic manufacturing by simply eliminating the soldering process. Inspired by the words of 13th century philosopher and logician William of Occam, “It is vanity to do with more that which can be done with less,” the Occam Process redefines manufacturing where, in most fundamental terms, instead of soldering components to circuit boards, circuits are built up on “component boards.” While there is no certainty that the concept will gain wide favor in the immediate future, the concept could serve as a model for the manufacture of products for developing nations as the manufacturing infrastructure requirements are greatly reduced, as is the manufactured cost of the products, while making longer lasting products, all of which are critical requirements in meeting the needs of the 3+ billion people living on wages of just a few dollars a day.

While this latter concept has proven intriguing to many over the last several years, it is worth remembering and even demonstrable that black swan technologies are not always openly welcome because of their disruptive nature. Nature may favor evolution, but business tends to favor stasis. Still, when new technologies ultimately prove their ability to deliver on their promises, be it cost reduction, improved performance (e.g., the integrated circuit) or some other positive attribute they can have a compelling and profound effect on industry.

Turning back to the subject book and the author’s analysis, he concludes that black swan events are events that meet three basic criteria. First, they are surprises not generally viewed as predictable by the average individual. Second, they normally have a significant and even profound effect on any given group from a society to an industry. Finally, their occurrence is normally rationalized by hindsight and it is often treated as if it was expected.

Perhaps the best way to close is to suggest to the reader that they should expect the unexpected to avoid being surprised and that one of the best ways to prepare for the future is to help shape it.  Verdant Electronics Founder and President Joseph (Joe) Fjelstad is a four-decade veteran of the electronics industry and an international authority and innovator in the field of electronic interconnection and packaging technologies. Fjelstad has more than 250 U.S. and international patents issued or pending and is the author of Flexible Circuit Technology. To contact Joe, click here.