Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

FabFile Online Report: FabFile Flashes

Introductory Note From Harvey Miller

I learn so much while updating the Fabfile OnlineTM database of global PCB fabricators. Some of it may be of interest to others, so I’ll occasionally share it in bite-sized portions, under the nickname "Fabfile Flashes."

PCB fabricators represent the sector of electronic manufacturing where the rubber meets the road. The substrates (the road) they create move on through the assembly process where they meet up with ICs and other components to become the electronic devices and equipment we love so much. That is why the electronics industry, at over $1.5 trillion in factory output, is #1 globally--and the electronics industry is still young, folks! (For more on this, see Dr. Bill Bottoms' comments at the end of this column.)

PCB fabricators typically interface with the OEMs more intensely than even integrated circuit suppliers. The IC interface occurs at the design level, early in the production cycle, so the PCB fabricators provide a great window.

It was a pleasure to meet so many PCB folks at recent events, which brings me to a sub-topic: Two PCB industry trade shows/conferences that think they compete, but do not.

1. IPC APEX EXPO 2013 (San Diego Convention Center) The technical conference will be held February 19-21, 2013 and the professional development courses will be held February 17-18 and February 21.

2. PCB West 2012 (Santa Clara Convention Center) Mike Buetow, editorial director of UP Media Group, publisher of PCD&F Magazine, Circuits Assembly, and producer of the show, said, “It was a terrific week!” with which I emphatically agree. According to UP Media, PCB West's total attendance rose 12% year-over-year as the tepid economy didn't seem to bother either the number of visitors or the enthusiasm. Conference attendance rose 5.6% over 2011 as PCB designers, fabricators, and assemblers flocked to the larger technical program. It included a three-day technical conference consisting of more than 55 presentations, a one-day exhibition featuring the PCB industry's leading vendors, and an array of free technical sessions. Overall, some 1,400 PCB designers, fabricators and electronics assemblers, managers, and suppliers attended the event.

One comparative statistic will support the thesis: IPC APEX EXPO and UP Media PCB West do not compete. On the contrary, they complement each other beautifully. I wouldn't miss either show, and neither should you.

Number of exhibitors:

• PCB West 2012: 61  
• IPC APEX EXPO 2013 (preliminary): 377

PCB fabricator/vendor exhibitors:

• PCB West 2012: 25  
• IPC APEX EXPO: 6

See why I love both? Each has its own special exhibitor drawing card, so indeed, there is very marginal competition for booth sales. We'll leave that for our conclusion and move on to all the Fabfile Online news I am bursting to tell you.Show Wrap-up

The scale alone makes the shows incomparable, but there is a key difference in audience that exhibitors should evaluate. Put it this way: If you want to reach deep into OEM and IC design functions, PCB West, in the heart of Silicon Valley, is a must. If you want to reach the people involved with the PCB fabrication and the assembly line, it's IPC APEX EXPO for you. Of course, this general categorization of audience is not mutually exclusive, nor absolute. Important people in all categories can be found at both events.

Like I said, they complement each other.

UP Media has created a unique, relatively low-cost, very inviting model in their one extended-day show with an abundance of good food, and good drinks at the end, to keep that audience captive. It provided a magical ambience for high-quality networking and a great platform for me to launch "Fabfile Flashes." 

Solving a San Francisco Mystery

In Custer Consulting Group's informative newsletter of last September 12, the following appeared:

Alex Danovich, president of San Francisco Circuits, announced that his company will be exhibiting at PCB West 2012 at the Santa Clara Convention Center September 25-27, 2012. Commenting, Danovich said, “This year we’ll be introducing micro circuits capabilities, technology requiring 20um circuit geometries, 30um dielectric layers, 50um laser vias, 125um bump pitches, 2% impedance tolerancing, and gold wire-bonding [1].

Shortly after, I received a call from industry veteran Denny Fritz, asking me, “Who is San Francisco Circuits, with that impressive lineup of capabilities? They aren't in the Fabfile Online database.” 

My reply was dismissive: “Alex is a reseller/rep. He probably has a new Asian principal.” I learned better at PCB West. In the San Francisco Circuits booth was Mike Oswald of Advanced Component Labs, a pretty good indication that Alex and Mike are working together. Then, I received the confirmation by Mike when I saw him at ACL's exhibit in MEPTEC's “Known Good Die” symposium. Displayed there were PCBs that exemplified the features that Alex announced. ACL is one of two fabricators of IC substrates in North America. The other is Endicott Interconnect, formerly IBM's leading PCB operation. ACL is a Silicon Valley jewel--it’s time for the rest of the world to know about it [2].

Catching up with Some Favorite People at PCB WestJohn Peters, marketing manager of Cartel Electronics, had his youngest son, David, in tow, introducing him to the industry. He's the youngest of six. John is a pretty good producer at work too. He has a history of multiplying sales--at Trend, Dynamic, and now Cartel where he says the multiple is five.

Two Who Framed the Day

It began with Greg Papandrew's (Bare Board Group) talk on the many communications’ pitfalls that lead to PCB procurement problems with all their potential supply chain disruptions. Greg held the room spellbound and gave us all a free copy of  his PCBs for Dummies. I'll try to convey some of his message in a future column.

On the show floor, I ran into the high-powered team from I-Connect007, kind sponsor of my column, "Fabfile Online." I saw Jean Sawyer, Angela Alexander, and Barry Matties. At show's end I found what they were up to. Papandrew and Joe O'Neill made the big announcement: BBG has acquired Hunter PCB.

David Hoover also gave a technical talk in the morning about what can go wrong in fab. I met him later in the TTM booth. He and Karl Dietz always help me understand.

Conclusion

I'd like to go on to some more weighty discussions, but they will have to wait. Here’s a little foreshadowing:

Question: Why is the 2013 economic picture for electronics so cloudy?

Hint: Both the IC industry and electronic manufacturing technology are at critical transition points, temporarily restraining investment.

Question: What will it really take to bring electronic manufacturing back to the U.S.?

Hint: A new manufacturing paradigm replacing SMT.

Question: How will 'known good die' pave the way to embedded actives?

Hint: It's obvious--yields will make embedding practical. The increased density and reduced cost will drive it--the new manufacturing paradigm.

And finally, Bill Bottom's thought-provoking comments provide the reasons for the transformative change. It's about density, density, density! The following is my summary of a talk, "ITRS and iNEMI Roadmaps: Changes in Packaging Materials and Architectures for 2012," delivered by Dr. Bottoms, May 9, 2012 in Santa Clara, California, along with supporting roadmap quotes.The $1.4 trillion question (the size of electronic hardware annual sales, 2012) raised by Dr. Bottoms: “During the 40 years between 1967 when CMOS began to be used and 2007, we will have seen one million times improvement in the density of integrated circuits. We saw a million times improvement in the cost to build an integrated circuit, and we saw a million times improvement in the feature size…But you might think about it for a moment. What happens if we have another one million-times improvement over the next 40 years?” Sample figures quoted from the IC roadmap by Dr. Bottoms, selected for impact on IC packaging density.

Looking at just the next 10 years:

• “Transistor count will exceed 100 billion for complex SiP packages.”
• “From 2012 to 2022 max package I/O data rate will increase from 2,500 to 79,879 Gb/s.”
• "Number of I/O lanes required per package will increase from 250 to 1,997.”
• “Photonics is the solution to physical density of bandwidth to SIP.”
• “Area required for differential electrical I/O will drive I/O to optical about 2015.”

References:1. www.sfcircuits.com 2. aclusa.com

Harvey Miller has been watching the printed circuit industry for over 30 years as an economist at the University of Michigan, analyst, and database creator. He began his electronics career as a components engineer for computer and telecom OEMs, Burroughs and GTE among them. At present he's putting it all together, generating powerful marketing database tools for the global PCB industry at www.FabfileOnline.com. To contact Miller, click here.