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EPTE Newsletter from Japan - Next Generation Semiconductors

Topics of the Week

Next Generation Semiconductors

There is a lot of prognosticating and discussion surrounding the next generation semiconductor material that will replace silicon in the electronics industry. However, if we consider main stream electronics, there is no question the overwhelming favorite over the next few decades will be silicon as the major semiconductor material. 

Recently, many industry researchers and college professors have spoke about the possibility of an organic semiconductor as the alternative material to silicon. They predict the new material will provide a low cost solution because of the availability of a low temperature process that involves ink jet printing.  The material cost will be less expensive than silicon once volume production begins.  It will provide great opportunities in new applications that include flexible displays and wearable computers.

I am not optimistic with the outcome for organic semiconductor materials and their processes. Currently, the material cost is very high and can not be offset because production volumes are small. The application processes have many limitations in generating actual active devices. The current process capabilities to produce fine traces are three or four orders below that of traditional silicon semiconductors.  Another big issue is the electrical properties are very different from silicon; hence, a lot of trials and evaluations are needed to standardize design rules if used as the major materials for the electronics industry.  In my opinion, it could take up to five or ten years to break through all of the technical barriers before volume applications begin.

Meanwhile, several Japanese material suppliers such as Sumitomo Electric and Hitachi Cable are going in a different direction.  They are not experimenting with a very new material; in fact, it has been in the industry for a quarter century.  The materials are compound semiconductors that include GaAs and InP.   A key value with compound semiconductors is they have several important properties that cannot be covered by the silicon semiconductors.  Typical examples include high-speed devices and optical devices such as laser diodes and LED.  Twenty years ago the market niche was small compared to silicon base devices; however, during the last decade its popularity has grown.

The market share for compound semiconductors could be less than one percent compared to silicon.  Manufacturers do not expect their materials to be a major source in the semiconductor industry in the future; however, growth rates are higher than silicon because demands are increasing faster for this product. Fortunately for manufacturers, competition is limited in this market, and higher margins are realized.  Currently, the wafer sizes of the compound semiconductors are 2" to 6" because of customers' requirements.  Wafer manufacturers do not need to make large capital investments for equipment because customer requirements have not changed.

Sumitomo Electric, a major cable and flex circuit manufacturer in Japan expects over 23 billion yens in revenue for 2006 from their compound semiconductor business. About half of this revenue is generated by the GaAs wafers. The GaN wafer used in blue ray laser devices is the growth leader in this segment.  The company plans to double its manufacturing capacity in 2007.  Hitachi Cable, another major cable and TAB manufacturer expects over 12 billion yens in revenue this year and more than a 20% growth next year.

There may not be many rooms for new comers to this market.  Bridgestone, a major tire supplier, recently developed a new compound semiconductor SiC wafer for high frequency and power devices.

I do not recommend new comers in the semiconductor material industry to go in the same direction as theses Japanese companies; however they could learn from their business histories when they plan to start another electronic material business.

Dominique Numakura, DKN Research (dnumakura@dknresearch.com)

Headlines of the week

1.      Tokuyama (Major material company in Japan) 12/11

Will increase the manufacturing capacity of poly silicon more than 50% to 3000 tons per year for the semiconductor and solar cell applications.

2.      Toshiba (Major electronics company in Japan) 12/11

Will start the volume production of the new 1.8" disc drive "MK1011GAH" with a memory capacity of 100 GB in Jan. 2007.

3.      Shin Nittetsu Materials (Subsidiary of Nippon Steel) 12/11

Has unveiled a new bumping technology with 90 micron solder ball and 150 micron pitch. The process is capable to manage 200 mm wafer.

4.      Kureha (Organic material supplier in Japan) 12/12

Plans to expand the business of PVDF (Poly-Vinyliden-Floride) as the resin binder for the lithium ion batteries.

5.      Hitachi Cable (Major cable and TAB supplier in Japan) 12/12

Has developed a 13 micron diameter copper wire as the core conductor of the ultra small size cooxial cable (0.16 mm diameters).

6.      Poly Plastic (Major resin supplier in Japan) 12/13

Will increase the manufacturing capacity of the LCP resin more than 50% to 8200 tons per year by 1st quarter of 2008 to cover the growing demands.

7.      NOK (The largest flex circuit manufacturer in Japan) 12/13

Expects the record revenue of 167 billion yens in the fiscal year of 2006. But income will decline to 21 billion yens because of serious market price competition.

8.      MEC (Chemical supplier for PWB industry in Japan) 12/13

Has recorded  3.86 billion yens revenue for the first half of the 2006 fiscal year, 27.1% growth from the same period of 2005. "CZ Series", surface treatment regent for the copper foils of IC substrates leaded the business.

9.      Hitachi Chemical (Major material supplier for PWB industry in Japan) 12/13

Will invest 2.5 billion yens to build a new plant of ACF (Anisotropic Conductive Film) in Shimodate to cover the booming demands of FPD industry.

10.  Ibiden (Major PWB manufacturer in Japan) 12/14

Has completed the construction of the second plant in Beijin for the manufacturing of multi-layer boards of cellular phones.

11.  Showa Denko (Major chemical company in Japan) 12/14

Has started the operation of the new plant in Singapore. The new plant produces vertical recording type hard memory disc substrates.

12.  NEC Electronics (Major device supplier in Japan) 12/15

Has developed a new stacked memory package technology. 9 different chips are mounted in a small package using the poly-silicon through hole technology.

Interesting literatures about the packaging industry

Articles of DKN Research

1. "New" "2006 Global Material Projection for Flex Circuit" DKN Research, October, 2006. http://www.dknresearch.com/Products.html

2. "Introduction for the Printed Circuit Boards of Car Electronics, Flexible Circuits", (Japanese only), Dominique Numakura, Nikkan Kogyo Shinbun, June, 2006, 2400 yens.

3. "The latest semiconductor package, Part XVII, Termination Technologies-Encapsulation", Dominique Numakura, Electronics Packaging Technology, August, 2006 

4. "Five Year Projection of the Global Flexible Circuit Market" Robert Turunen, Dominique Numakura and James J. Hickman, The Board Authority, Volume 7, August, 2006

5."New" "Technical Trends and Market Projection of the Materials for the Flexible Circuits", (Japanese only) Dominique Numakura, Denshi Zairyo, October, 2006

6."New" "Leading Edge Material and Application of Polyimide (Materials for the Advance Flexible Circuits)", Dominique Numakura, CMC publication, August, 2006

7. "Global Trends of the Flexible Circuit Market", Robert Turunen & Dominique Numakura, TPCA Journal, Q2, 2006 (Chinese only)

From the Major Industry Magazines

1. "Evolution of a Wiring Concept: 30 Years of Flex-Rigid Circuit Board Production", CircuiTree, November, 2006.

2. "Re-Sourcing, Outsourced Electronics", Ed Grimes, Circuits Assembly, November, 2006.

3. "Embedded Passive, Stick in the Chasm?", Per Viklund, SMT, October, 2006

4. "The 2006 Salary Survey", Andy Shaughnessy,

"Laminate Material Selection", Ed Kelley and Erik Bergum, Printed Circuit Design & Manufacturing, November, 2006.

5. "Package -on-Package Trends and Technology", Flynn Carson and Moshe Bunyan,

"New Packaging Concept for Ultra-thin Chips", Els Parton and Wim Christiaens,

"Microelectronics Design and Manufacturing", David Wiens,

Advanced Packaging, October, 2006

6. "Goodbye CRT", Paul O'Donovan, IEEE Spectrum, November, 2006

7. "EB Top 300 Revenue" John Edwards, Electronic Business, August 2006