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Japanese Electronics Industry: Market Trends for 2015

It's hard to believe the first quarter of 2015 is almost over! The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) released the final 2014 performance data for the electronics industry. Analysts and forecasters are pouring over the data hoping to project business trends for the New Year. I studied the data released from METI, and will share some of my findings as well as some market trends I see for 2015.

Total domestic production for the electronics industry in 2014 was 11.8 trillion yen (about $100 billion), a 2.6% increase from the previous year. This is slightly less than most companies predicted. There are three major segments defined by METI: consumer electronics, which includes TVs and digital cameras; industrial electronics, which includes computers and cellular phones; and electronic components, which includes semiconductors and LCD display panels.

The consumer electronics segment posted revenue at 693 billion yen in 2014, a 15.7% decline from the previous year. Sales of flat panel TVs declined 6.1% compared to the previous year, but 2013 was one of the worst years for this segment (Japanese manufacturers have almost zero production). Digital cameras are still a major source of income for the industry, but sales declined by 30% in 2014. Car navigation systems accounted for almost 51% of revenue for consumer electronics. The navigation segment decreased by 5.9% compared to the previous year. Consumer electronics was the bulk of exports in Japan years ago. Nowadays, it makes up less than one tenth of exports, and there is no sign of it returning to its hay days.

The industrial electronics segment posted revenues of 3.6 trillion yen in 2014; this is a 3.1% decline from the previous year. Sales of cellular phones decreased by 38% and are no longer considered a significant contributor for industry revenue. Japan’s cellular market was called “Galapagos Phenomena” in the global cellular phone industry because it was isolated from foreign manufacturers. Nowadays, Apple’s iPhone has the largest share of the smart phone market, and continues to grow. Personal computers including tablet PCs decreased by 1.6%, but it has less than 2% share in the global market. The manufacturing and testing equipment categories, meanwhile, continue to show steady growth.

The electronic components segment posted revenue of 7.5 trillion yen in 2014, up by 7.8% from the previous year. Passive components recorded the largest growth at 14.7%, while discrete semiconductors grew by 8.5% year-on-year. Both are maintaining a relatively large market share in the global arena, especially the high-end segments. Growth from integrated circuits segment increased by 4.6%, but it is no longer a major player in the global market. The printed circuit board segment, meanwhile, dropped by 2.7% in 2014—this is a domino effect from a lack of business in Japan.

There were no surprises for me with the 2014 data for the Japanese electronics industry. I follow the industry extensively, and the performance in 2014 is understandable and reasonable. Consumer electronics giants such as Panasonic and Sharp made several decisions that did not pan out for them. They underestimated their new competitors in Asia. Unfortunately, I have not seen any signs of recovery for these two companies over the last few months.

On the other hand, component manufacturers Murata and TDK are growing. Their business plan was solid and executed properly. They continue to make conservative, but aggressive decisions that are keeping them ahead of the pack in the global market. The increase in business is not earth shattering, but their sales are steady and show positive growth month over month. I believe they will continue to grow in the competitive global consumer electronics market.

Headlines of the week

(Please contact haverhill@dknreseach.com for further information of the news.)

1. DNP (Major printing company in Japan) 2/19

Has started the volume production of templates for the next generation nano-imprint lithography.

2. Canon (Major electronics company in Japan) 2/23

Has been developing the next generation semiconductor manufacturing systems with ten nanometer resolution introducing nano-imprint technologies.

3. Toppan Printing (Major printing company in Japan) 2/23

Has developed a new large size (55”) touch panel module with copper conductors for digital signage boards.

4. Toda Kogyo (Device manufacturer in Japan) 2/24

Has founded a new joint venture with BASF for the manufacturing of cathode materials for the lithium ion batteries.

5. SCREEN Holdings (Major equipment manufacturer in Japan) 3/6

Has developed a new evaluation system of photovoltaic cells introducing LTEM (Laser Tera-Herz Emission Microscope).

6. Kinpo Group (EMS company in Taiwan) 3/6

Is building a new manufacturing plant in Philippines for the manufacturing of calculators and LED devices.

7. RIKEN (Major R&D organization in Japan) 3/9

Has co-developed a new low cost measuring equipment of radioactive cesium in food.

8. Toshiba (Major electric and electronics company in Japan) 3/9

Has started the field test of the next generation hydrogen fuel cell system in Yamaguchi Prefecture.

9. Rohm (Major device manufacturer in Japan) 3/11

Has decided to build a new plant in Malaysia to expand the manufacturing capacity of diode and other discrete components.

10. OKI Printed Circuits (Major PWB manufacturer in Japan) 3/11

Has established the manufacturing process for ultra high layer counts up 102 layers with 6.8 mm thick for the probe cards of wafer testers.

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Dominique K. Numakura, dnumakura@dknresearch.com

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